Closing spread
CIN -11.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+5.7est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.052
- 39.2%Success rate45.3%
- -0.011EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.131EPA / rush-0.050
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.8%
- -1.42CPOE+2.98
- 36.2%Third-down rate38.9%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.37Points / drive1.86
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Hogan | 12/24 | 100 | 0 | 2 |
| Cody Kessler | 9/11 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Hogan | 7 | 104 | 14.9 | 1 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Cody Kessler | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Barnidge | 6 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| Malcolm Johnson | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Ricardo Louis | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 19/28 | 308 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 9 | 168 | 18.7 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 17 | 80 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 8 | 8 | 169 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| Jeremy Hill | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| James Wright | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.2%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.97
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.71