2016 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Cody Kessler

17·31

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 65°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CIN -11.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+5.7est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBengals
  • -0.050EPA / play+0.052
  • 39.2%Success rate45.3%
  • -0.011EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.131EPA / rush-0.050
  • 9.2%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -1.42CPOE+2.98
  • 36.2%Third-down rate38.9%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 1.37Points / drive1.86
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CIN
CINQ1 15:00785Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 12:14619Punt0–7
CINQ1 8:351156Missed field goal0–7
CLEQ1 3:42965Field goal3–7
CINQ2 13:2630Punt3–7
CLEQ2 11:591080Touchdown10–7
CINQ2 6:20580Touchdown10–14
CLEQ2 4:09637Punt10–14
CINQ2 1:03785Touchdown10–21
CLEQ3 15:00875Touchdown17–21
CINQ3 10:43275Touchdown17–28
CLEQ3 9:47514Punt17–28
CINQ3 7:35666Field goal17–31
CLEQ3 4:1932Turnover17–31
CLEQ3 3:1960Punt17–31
CINQ4 14:471269Missed field goal17–31
CLEQ4 7:1231Punt17–31
CINQ4 6:10531Punt17–31
CLEQ4 3:57859Turnover17–31
CINQ4 1:52312End of half17–31

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Hogan12/2410002
Cody Kessler9/118200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Hogan710414.91
Isaiah Crowell12635.31
Duke Johnson6152.50
Cody Kessler1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gary Barnidge67660
Malcolm Johnson12210
Andrew Hawkins24190
Rashard Higgins22190
Terrelle Pryor24180
Duke Johnson45180
Isaiah Crowell34160
Ricardo Louis1350

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton19/2830820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill916818.71
Giovani Bernard17804.71
Rex Burkhead4235.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green881691
Brandon LaFell45831
Jeremy Hill22240
Rex Burkhead11100
Tyler Eifert1290
Giovani Bernard1270
Tyler Kroft1130
Tyler Boyd1330
James Wright0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +11.56.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.2%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.97
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.71