Closing spread
ARI -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play-0.005
- 44.0%Success rate45.3%
- +0.102EPA / dropback+0.043
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.093
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- +4.81CPOE-0.78
- 38.7%Third-down rate40.4%
- 41.8%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.88Points / drive1.89
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. ARI are 21-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 24/37 | 225 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christine Michael | 16 | 52 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 6 | 9 | 69 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 5 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Tanner McEvoy | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 29/49 | 342 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 33 | 113 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Nelson | 3 | 7 | 84 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 9 | 14 | 70 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 5 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 8 | 13 | 58 | 0 |
| Ifeanyi Momah | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Brittan Golden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.89