2016 · Week 7 · Division

Final / OT

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

6·6

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -2.5

Total

43

Model margin

+1.9est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCardinals
  • +0.022EPA / play-0.005
  • 44.0%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.102EPA / dropback+0.043
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.093
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +4.81CPOE-0.78
  • 38.7%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 41.8%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.89
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00635Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:2437Punt0–0
ARIQ1 9:5333Punt0–0
SEAQ1 8:5636Punt0–0
ARIQ1 7:59933Punt0–0
SEAQ1 2:1434Punt0–0
ARIQ1 0:29512Missed field goal0–0
SEAQ2 13:20513Punt0–0
ARIQ2 11:351553Field goal0–3
SEAQ2 3:11617Punt0–3
ARIQ2 1:291038End of half0–3
SEAQ3 15:00730Punt0–3
ARIQ3 10:141042Turnover on downs0–3
SEAQ3 4:2836Punt0–3
ARIQ3 2:46851Punt0–3
SEAQ4 13:02618Punt0–3
ARIQ4 10:0235Punt0–3
SEAQ4 9:073-6Punt0–3
ARIQ4 7:1149Punt0–3
SEAQ4 4:33410Field goal3–3
ARIQ4 4:00621Punt3–3
SEAQ4 1:09525End of half3–3
ARIOT848Field goal3–6
SEAOT857Field goal6–6
ARIOT674Missed field goal6–6
SEAOT770Missed field goal6–6
ARIOT219End of half6–6

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson24/3722500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christine Michael16523.30
Alex Collins122.00
C.J. Prosise100.00
Russell Wilson1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin69690
Jimmy Graham510530
Jermaine Kearse34510
C.J. Prosise23170
Tyler Lockett22130
Paul Richardson12100
Tanner McEvoy11100
Christine Michael3330
Nick Vannett0100
Russell Wilson11-10

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer29/4934200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson331133.40
Carson Palmer188.00
Andre Ellington273.50
J.J. Nelson144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
J.J. Nelson37840
Larry Fitzgerald914700
Michael Floyd57650
David Johnson813580
Ifeanyi Momah22500
Jermaine Gresham24150
Brittan Golden0100
Andre Ellington0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.1%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.89