2016 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Bradford

10·20

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

MIN -5.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

-2.0est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBears
  • -0.042EPA / play-0.042
  • 42.5%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.253EPA / rush-0.111
  • 7.1%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +3.80CPOE-0.10
  • 38.4%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 49.1%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.41
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CHI
MINQ1 15:00736Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:08681Field goal0–3
MINQ1 8:283-1Punt0–3
CHIQ1 6:3837Punt0–3
MINQ1 5:1937Punt0–3
CHIQ1 4:2336Punt0–3
MINQ1 3:1239Punt0–3
CHIQ1 1:17764Field goal0–6
MINQ2 12:4430Punt0–6
CHIQ2 11:25643Touchdown0–13
MINQ2 7:491444Field goal3–13
CHIQ2 0:25433End of half3–13
CHIQ3 15:001175Touchdown3–20
MINQ3 9:52621Punt3–20
CHIQ3 7:01617Punt3–20
MINQ3 2:461138Punt3–20
CHIQ4 12:48627Punt3–20
MINQ4 8:511083Touchdown10–20
CHIQ4 5:41950Punt10–20
MINQ4 0:04121End of half10–20

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford23/3722810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Asiata14423.00
Ronnie Hillman4153.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs813761
Adam Thielen35400
Matt Asiata25360
Cordarrelle Patterson33360
Kyle Rudolph56310
Ronnie Hillman2590

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler20/3125210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard261535.91
Ka'Deem Carey231.50
Jay Cutler122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Miller710880
Alshon Jeffery48631
Jordan Howard44490
Cameron Meredith12240
Jeremy Langford11110
Ben Braunecker1180
Logan Paulsen1250
Josh Bellamy1240
Deonte Thompson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.6%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.85
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-2.03