Closing spread
MIN -5.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-2.0est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play-0.042
- 42.5%Success rate44.1%
- +0.075EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.253EPA / rush-0.111
- 7.1%Explosive rate10.0%
- +3.80CPOE-0.10
- 38.4%Third-down rate37.8%
- 49.1%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 1.65Points / drive1.41
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 23/37 | 228 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Asiata | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 8 | 13 | 76 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 2 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 5 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 20/31 | 252 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 26 | 153 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Miller | 7 | 10 | 88 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 4 | 8 | 63 | 1 |
| Jordan Howard | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Cameron Meredith | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Ben Braunecker | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.16
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.85
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-2.03