2016 · Week 8

Final

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

31·28

Browns

Cleveland

QB Josh McCown

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-3.0est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.069EPA / play-0.050
  • 40.5%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback-0.011
  • -0.070EPA / rush-0.131
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -4.70CPOE-1.42
  • 36.5%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 47.6%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 1.40Points / drive1.37
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 10–6 since 1999

NYJ have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. CLE are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CLE @ NYJ12–17NYJ
2025 · W10CLE @ NYJ20–27NYJ
2023 · W17NYJ @ CLE20–37CLE
2022 · W2NYJ @ CLE31–30NYJ
2020 · W16CLE @ NYJ16–23NYJ
2019 · W2CLE @ NYJ23–3CLE
2018 · W3NYJ @ CLE17–21CLE
2017 · W5NYJ @ CLE17–14NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00875Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 11:4539Punt0–7
CLEQ1 9:3136Punt0–7
NYJQ1 8:023-2Punt0–7
CLEQ1 6:53759Field goal0–10
NYJQ1 3:111382Touchdown7–10
CLEQ2 12:4434Punt7–10
NYJQ2 11:403-4Punt7–10
CLEQ2 10:39623Punt7–10
NYJQ2 8:43421Punt7–10
CLEQ2 6:311058Touchdown7–17
NYJQ2 1:5130Punt7–17
CLEQ2 1:25549Field goal7–20
NYJQ3 15:001278Touchdown14–20
CLEQ3 8:15741Punt14–20
NYJQ3 5:14884Touchdown21–20
CLEQ3 2:1133Punt21–20
NYJQ3 1:051381Touchdown28–20
CLEQ4 9:3825Turnover28–20
NYJQ4 9:03642Punt28–20
CLEQ4 5:2730Turnover28–20
NYJQ4 5:1332Field goal31–20
CLEQ4 4:041484Touchdown31–28
NYJQ4 0:1200End of half31–28

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick16/3422810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte25823.32
Bilal Powell67612.71
Ryan Fitzpatrick4133.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quincy Enunwa411931
Brandon Marshall49680
Robbie Chosen36310
Matt Forte23160
Charone Peake11130
Brandon Bostick1140
Bilal Powell1330

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown25/4934122
Kevin Hogan2/2400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell11292.61
Duke Johnson4297.30
Josh McCown3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrelle Pryor6121010
Duke Johnson68870
Gary Barnidge37420
Isaiah Crowell22340
Ricardo Louis27320
Andrew Hawkins59312
Rashard Higgins11100
Seth DeValve1150
Jordan Payton1130
Randall Telfer0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.0%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.41
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.33
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.00