Closing spread
NYJ -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-3.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play-0.050
- 40.5%Success rate39.2%
- -0.069EPA / dropback-0.011
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.131
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.2%
- -4.70CPOE-1.42
- 36.5%Third-down rate36.2%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.40Points / drive1.37
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CLE are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 16/34 | 228 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 25 | 82 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Bilal Powell | 6 | 76 | 12.7 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Enunwa | 4 | 11 | 93 | 1 |
| Brandon Marshall | 4 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Charone Peake | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Brandon Bostick | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 25/49 | 341 | 2 | 2 |
| Kevin Hogan | 2/2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrelle Pryor | 6 | 12 | 101 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 8 | 87 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 3 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Ricardo Louis | 2 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 5 | 9 | 31 | 2 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jordan Payton | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Randall Telfer | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.0%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.41
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-3.33
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.00