2016 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

23·27

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

MIA -3.5

Total

45

Model margin

+3.6est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.069EPA / play-0.004
  • 40.5%Success rate42.2%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.062
  • -0.070EPA / rush-0.092
  • 9.3%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -4.70CPOE+4.52
  • 36.5%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 47.6%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 1.40Points / drive1.80
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–MIA
NYJQ1 15:001365Field goal3–0
MIAQ1 8:26640Touchdown3–7
NYJQ1 4:56861Touchdown10–7
MIAQ1 0:351175Touchdown10–14
NYJQ2 10:16880Field goal13–14
MIAQ2 5:20612Punt13–14
NYJQ2 2:0732Punt13–14
MIAQ2 1:1968End of half13–14
MIAQ3 15:00611Punt13–14
NYJQ3 11:3139Punt13–14
MIAQ3 10:01951Field goal13–17
NYJQ3 5:0810Turnover13–17
MIAQ3 5:0038Field goal13–20
NYJQ3 3:221047Field goal16–20
MIAQ4 12:50624Punt16–20
NYJQ4 10:18753Turnover16–20
MIAQ4 7:0044Turnover on downs16–20
NYJQ4 5:52218Touchdown23–20
MIAQ4 5:4200Touchdown23–27
NYJQ4 5:153-4Punt23–27
MIAQ4 2:54642End of half23–27

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick16/2719412
Bryce Petty2/21900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte12927.71
Ryan Fitzpatrick3268.70
Bilal Powell6223.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalin Marshall34591
Robbie Chosen46490
Brandon Marshall58460
Bilal Powell44290
Quincy Enunwa14250
Matt Forte1250
Austin Seferian-Jenkins0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill17/2814910
Jarvis Landry0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi241114.61
Damien Williams5295.80
Ryan Tannehill2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dominique Jones34421
Jarvis Landry36330
Damien Williams23200
Jay Ajayi34190
Kenny Stills11110
MarQueis Gray24100
DeVante Parker2480
Kenyan Drake1160
Jakeem Grant0100
Leonte Carroo0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.6%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.57