Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
+3.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play-0.004
- 40.5%Success rate42.2%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.062
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.092
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.4%
- -4.70CPOE+4.52
- 36.5%Third-down rate37.0%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.40Points / drive1.80
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 16/27 | 194 | 1 | 2 |
| Bryce Petty | 2/2 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 12 | 92 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalin Marshall | 3 | 4 | 59 | 1 |
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 5 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 1 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 17/28 | 149 | 1 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 24 | 111 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Damien Williams | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominique Jones | 3 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonte Carroo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.57