Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play-0.060
- 39.2%Success rate40.7%
- -0.011EPA / dropback-0.041
- -0.131EPA / rush-0.100
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.1%
- -1.42CPOE-0.41
- 36.2%Third-down rate38.2%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.37Points / drive1.63
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Kessler | 11/18 | 91 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 6/13 | 59 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cody Kessler | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Hogan | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrelle Pryor | 5 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 1 | 1 | 25 | 1 |
| Corey Coleman | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Randall Telfer | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 30/41 | 296 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance West | 21 | 65 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Mallett | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breshad Perriman | 3 | 4 | 64 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 5 | 7 | 60 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 5 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 6 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Terrance West | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.40