2016 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Cody Kessler

7·28

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

Total

44

Model margin

+3.4est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRavens
  • -0.050EPA / play-0.060
  • 39.2%Success rate40.7%
  • -0.011EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.131EPA / rush-0.100
  • 9.2%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -1.42CPOE-0.41
  • 36.2%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 1.37Points / drive1.63
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. BAL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BAL
BALQ1 15:00514Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:13613Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:4257Punt0–0
CLEQ1 7:00520Punt0–0
BALQ1 4:05843Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 0:1036Punt0–0
BALQ2 14:22741Field goal0–3
CLEQ2 10:29859Touchdown7–3
BALQ2 6:3047Punt7–3
CLEQ2 3:2659Punt7–3
BALQ2 1:391152Field goal7–6
CLEQ3 15:003-1Punt7–6
BALQ3 13:34964Touchdown7–13
CLEQ3 9:3632Turnover7–13
BALQ3 8:45425Turnover7–13
CLEQ3 6:393-9Punt7–13
BALQ3 5:02643Touchdown7–21
CLEQ3 2:05737Turnover7–21
BALQ4 13:481290Touchdown7–28
CLEQ4 6:2148Turnover7–28
BALQ4 5:0840Punt7–28
CLEQ4 4:0730Punt7–28
BALQ4 3:07313End of half7–28

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cody Kessler11/189110
Josh McCown6/135902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell9232.60
Duke Johnson263.00
Cody Kessler133.00
Kevin Hogan111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrelle Pryor59480
Isaiah Crowell35300
Duke Johnson35250
Seth DeValve11251
Corey Coleman35170
Gary Barnidge1480
Andrew Hawkins0100
Randall Telfer11-30

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco30/4129632

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrance West21653.10
Kenneth Dixon6386.30
Chris Moore11010.00
Joe Flacco133.00
Javorius Allen231.50
Ryan Mallett2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Breshad Perriman34641
Steve Smith57601
Mike Wallace45590
Kenneth Dixon57420
Dennis Pitta66260
Kamar Aiken24150
Darren Waller22141
Terrance West12120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.40