2016 · Week 10 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

20·23

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -14

Total

46.5

Model margin

+6.5est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCardinals
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.005
  • 39.6%Success rate45.3%
  • -0.036EPA / dropback+0.043
  • -0.169EPA / rush-0.093
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -5.73CPOE-0.78
  • 34.6%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.89
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ARI
ARIQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
SFQ1 14:053-4Punt0–0
ARIQ1 12:25320Turnover0–0
SFQ1 11:2933Punt0–0
ARIQ1 9:591191Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 3:5535Punt0–7
ARIQ1 1:54310Punt0–7
ARIQ2 15:00218Touchdown0–14
SFQ2 14:42675Touchdown7–14
ARIQ2 12:12744Field goal7–17
SFQ2 8:281461Field goal10–17
ARIQ2 1:321068Field goal10–20
SFQ3 15:003-1Punt10–20
ARIQ3 13:46544Turnover10–20
SFQ3 10:56445Field goal13–20
ARIQ3 8:4067Punt13–20
SFQ3 5:263-1Punt13–20
ARIQ3 3:5230Turnover13–20
SFQ3 3:22814Punt13–20
ARIQ3 0:45620Punt13–20
SFQ4 12:15927Punt13–20
ARIQ4 8:09946Turnover13–20
SFQ4 3:13757Touchdown20–20
ARIQ4 1:551069Field goal20–23

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick17/3021010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Colin Kaepernick10555.51
DuJuan Harris5142.80
Carlos Hyde13141.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Kerley77711
Quinton Patton39520
Vance McDonald46500
Torrey Smith24260
Rod Streater12110
Carlos Hyde0100
Chris Harper0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer30/4937612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson19552.91
Carson Palmer11616.00
John Brown11010.00
Andre Ellington2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald12181320
Michael Floyd561010
David Johnson57461
Jermaine Gresham46380
John Brown24300
J.J. Nelson26290
Hakeem Valles0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.0%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+6.45