Closing spread
ARI -14
Total
46.5
Model margin
+6.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.005
- 39.6%Success rate45.3%
- -0.036EPA / dropback+0.043
- -0.169EPA / rush-0.093
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- -5.73CPOE-0.78
- 34.6%Third-down rate40.4%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.59Points / drive1.89
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 17/30 | 210 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 10 | 55 | 5.5 | 1 |
| DuJuan Harris | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 13 | 14 | 1.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Kerley | 7 | 7 | 71 | 1 |
| Quinton Patton | 3 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Rod Streater | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Harper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 30/49 | 376 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 19 | 55 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 12 | 18 | 132 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 5 | 6 | 101 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 5 | 7 | 46 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| John Brown | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 2 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Hakeem Valles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.15
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.45