Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
42
Model margin
-0.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.052EPA / play-0.060
- 45.3%Success rate40.7%
- +0.116EPA / dropback-0.041
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.1%
- +2.98CPOE-0.41
- 38.9%Third-down rate38.2%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.86Points / drive1.63
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 26/48 | 283 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Burkhead | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 12 | 21 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Eifert | 5 | 11 | 68 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 6 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 9 | 38 | 0 |
| James Wright | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Cody Core | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 25/36 | 234 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Dixon | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.6%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.30
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.56