2016 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

14·19

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

BAL -3.5

Total

42

Model margin

-0.6est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapRavens
  • +0.052EPA / play-0.060
  • 45.3%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.100
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +2.98CPOE-0.41
  • 38.9%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.63
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BAL are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BAL
BALQ1 15:001175Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 10:1545Punt0–7
BALQ1 8:20617Field goal0–10
CINQ1 5:391369Field goal3–10
BALQ2 14:5010Turnover3–10
CINQ2 14:3633Turnover3–10
BALQ2 13:17735Punt3–10
CINQ2 10:4739Punt3–10
BALQ2 8:3235Punt3–10
CINQ2 6:57531Punt3–10
BALQ2 4:35641Field goal3–13
CINQ2 1:404-2Punt3–13
BALQ2 1:01537Field goal3–16
CINQ3 15:00522Punt3–16
BALQ3 13:09739Punt3–16
CINQ3 9:141186Touchdown9–16
BALQ3 4:161159Field goal9–19
CINQ4 12:16412Punt9–19
BALQ4 10:43410Punt9–19
CINQ4 8:501030Field goal12–19
BALQ4 6:0039Punt12–19
CINQ4 4:171360Turnover12–19
BALQ4 1:054-16Safety14–19

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton26/4828310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rex Burkhead5295.80
Jeremy Hill12211.80
Andy Dalton3144.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Eifert511681
Tyler Boyd59620
Jeremy Hill66610
Brandon LaFell39380
James Wright36230
Rex Burkhead22190
Alex Erickson1170
Ryan Hewitt1250
Cody Core0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco25/3623411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Dixon13493.80
Terrance West13483.70
Joe Flacco2199.50
Mike Wallace1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace34570
Dennis Pitta35340
Kenneth Dixon44310
Kamar Aiken22300
Steve Smith44200
Terrance West34160
Darren Waller22140
Breshad Perriman13141

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.6%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.30
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.56