2016 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

26·31

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -5.5

Total

53

Model margin

+1.6est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCowboys
  • +0.118EPA / play+0.126
  • 48.2%Success rate48.6%
  • +0.202EPA / dropback+0.226
  • -0.033EPA / rush+0.006
  • 10.6%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +4.99CPOE+4.07
  • 44.9%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 51.2%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
  • 2.32Points / drive2.52
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DAL are 32-23 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DAL
DALQ1 15:00775Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 11:091255Missed field goal0–7
DALQ1 4:243-5Punt0–7
WASQ1 3:14975Field goal3–7
DALQ2 14:041147Field goal3–10
WASQ2 7:57637Missed field goal3–10
DALQ2 3:51655Touchdown3–17
WASQ2 1:451073Field goal6–17
DALQ2 0:0300End of half6–17
WASQ3 15:00520Punt6–17
DALQ3 12:17849Punt6–17
WASQ3 7:491490Touchdown12–17
DALQ4 14:54775Touchdown12–24
WASQ4 10:49375Touchdown19–24
DALQ4 9:22848Touchdown19–31
WASQ4 6:291580Touchdown26–31
DALQ4 1:53313End of half26–31

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins41/5344930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rob Kelley14372.60
Chris Thompson4174.30
Kirk Cousins122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson481181
Jordan Reed1012952
Jamison Crowder810880
Vernon Davis57680
Pierre Garcon44430
Chris Thompson56170
Maurice Harris22110
Rob Kelley2250
Derek Carrier1140
Ryan Grant0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott17/2419510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott20974.82
Dak Prescott8394.91
Lucky Whitehead11515.00
Alfred Morris11212.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant57720
Cole Beasley56560
Jason Witten33330
Ezekiel Elliott22230
Terrance Williams12101
Lance Dunbar1110
Brice Butler0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.63