2016 · Week 12 · Division
Final
AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf
Closing spread
DAL -5.5
Total
53
Model margin
+1.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play+0.126
- 48.2%Success rate48.6%
- +0.202EPA / dropback+0.226
- -0.033EPA / rush+0.006
- 10.6%Explosive rate9.8%
- +4.99CPOE+4.07
- 44.9%Third-down rate43.8%
- 51.2%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
- 2.32Points / drive2.52
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 41/53 | 449 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Kelley | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 8 | 118 | 1 |
| Jordan Reed | 10 | 12 | 95 | 2 |
| Jamison Crowder | 8 | 10 | 88 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 5 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 5 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Maurice Harris | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 17/24 | 195 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 20 | 97 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Dak Prescott | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 5 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 5 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.63