2014 · Week 14

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

28·13

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

MIA -3

Total

45

Model margin

+0.7est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapDolphins
  • +0.069EPA / play+0.019
  • 44.2%Success rate48.7%
  • +0.149EPA / dropback+0.065
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.063
  • 10.6%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -0.77CPOE+2.14
  • 41.5%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
  • 2.21Points / drive1.97
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 12–7 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9BAL @ MIA28–6BAL
2023 · W17MIA @ BAL19–56BAL
2022 · W2MIA @ BAL42–38MIA
2021 · W10BAL @ MIA10–22MIA
2019 · W1BAL @ MIA59–10BAL
2017 · W8MIA @ BAL0–40BAL
2016 · W13MIA @ BAL6–38BAL
2015 · W13BAL @ MIA13–15MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–MIA
BALQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:30631Field goal0–3
BALQ1 9:2834Punt0–3
MIAQ1 7:081157Touchdown0–10
BALQ1 1:4139Punt0–10
MIAQ2 15:00415Punt0–10
BALQ2 12:461074Turnover0–10
MIAQ2 7:53824Punt0–10
BALQ2 3:081197Touchdown7–10
MIAQ2 0:0200End of half7–10
MIAQ3 15:00735Punt7–10
BALQ3 11:321175Touchdown14–10
MIAQ3 6:14519Punt14–10
BALQ3 3:073-5Punt14–10
MIAQ3 1:24732Field goal14–13
BALQ4 12:41980Touchdown21–13
MIAQ4 8:0934Punt21–13
BALQ4 6:28781Touchdown28–13
MIAQ4 3:34533Turnover on downs28–13
BALQ4 2:21127End of half28–13

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco25/3326921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett13715.51
Bernard Pierce35016.70
Lorenzo Taliaferro7355.00
Joe Flacco7162.31
Jacoby Jones11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith711701
Kamar Aiken67651
Marlon Brown33300
Phillip Supernaw11290
Owen Daniels22270
Lorenzo Taliaferro11200
Jacoby Jones11180
Justin Forsett2270

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill23/3322710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller12534.40
Ryan Tannehill263.00
Damien Williams242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry66550
Charles Clay23410
Mike Wallace34390
Lamar Miller55360
Dion Sims23180
Rishard Matthews11130
Brian Hartline24111
Brandon Gibson1370
Damien Williams1370
Daniel Thomas0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.9%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.68