Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
45
Model margin
+0.7est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play+0.019
- 44.2%Success rate48.7%
- +0.149EPA / dropback+0.065
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.063
- 10.6%Explosive rate8.7%
- -0.77CPOE+2.14
- 41.5%Third-down rate41.5%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 2.21Points / drive1.97
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–7 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 25/33 | 269 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 13 | 71 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Bernard Pierce | 3 | 50 | 16.7 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 7 | 11 | 70 | 1 |
| Kamar Aiken | 6 | 7 | 65 | 1 |
| Marlon Brown | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Phillip Supernaw | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 23/33 | 227 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 6 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 5 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 2 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| Brandon Gibson | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.68