2016 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

23·10

Browns

Cleveland

QB Robert Griffin

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 28°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

CIN -4

Total

42

Model margin

-4.8est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.052EPA / play-0.050
  • 45.3%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback-0.011
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.131
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +2.98CPOE-1.42
  • 38.9%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.37
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CLE
CINQ1 15:00673Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 12:2136Punt7–0
CINQ1 11:16945Touchdown13–0
CLEQ1 6:27822Punt13–0
CINQ1 2:1335Punt13–0
CLEQ1 0:48716Punt13–0
CINQ2 13:09822Punt13–0
CLEQ2 7:5710Turnover13–0
CINQ2 7:43526Touchdown20–0
CLEQ2 5:06428Punt20–0
CINQ2 2:291045Missed field goal20–0
CLEQ3 15:0034Punt20–0
CINQ3 13:4233Punt20–0
CLEQ3 12:511077Touchdown20–7
CINQ3 8:11936Punt20–7
CLEQ3 3:20969Field goal20–10
CINQ4 14:141072Field goal23–10
CLEQ4 8:3857Punt23–10
CINQ4 5:21833Punt23–10
CLEQ4 0:57425End of half23–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton20/2818020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill251114.41
Rex Burkhead9455.00
Tyler Boyd24020.00
Andy Dalton2178.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd66490
Tyler Eifert56482
Jeremy Hill34310
Brandon LaFell36220
Alex Erickson12160
Cody Core1280
Rex Burkhead1260

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III12/2810401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell1011311.30
Robert Griffin III7314.41
Duke Johnson4246.00
Corey Coleman111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gary Barnidge35270
Corey Coleman311260
Duke Johnson12210
Seth DeValve12110
Randall Telfer1170
Isaiah Crowell1250
Andrew Hawkins1140
Terrelle Pryor1330
Danny Vitale0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -43.0%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.5%3.5%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

36.5%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.97
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.10
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-4.77