Closing spread
CIN -4
Total
42
Model margin
-4.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.052EPA / play-0.050
- 45.3%Success rate39.2%
- +0.116EPA / dropback-0.011
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.131
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.2%
- +2.98CPOE-1.42
- 38.9%Third-down rate36.2%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.86Points / drive1.37
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 20/28 | 180 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 25 | 111 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 40 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 6 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 5 | 6 | 48 | 2 |
| Jeremy Hill | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Cody Core | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 12/28 | 104 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 10 | 113 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Corey Coleman | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Barnidge | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Corey Coleman | 3 | 11 | 26 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Randall Telfer | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Danny Vitale | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.5%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.97
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-3.10
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-4.77