2016 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

7·10

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 32°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

+1.4est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapGiants
  • +0.126EPA / play-0.074
  • 48.6%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.226EPA / dropback-0.035
  • +0.006EPA / rush-0.142
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +4.07CPOE-1.63
  • 43.8%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 70.2%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 2.52Points / drive1.46
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00622Punt0–0
DALQ1 12:2637Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:503-6Punt0–0
DALQ1 8:501062Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 4:44840Turnover7–0
DALQ1 0:38421Turnover7–0
NYGQ2 13:33513Punt7–0
DALQ2 11:02414Punt7–0
NYGQ2 8:3831Turnover7–0
DALQ2 7:2666Punt7–0
NYGQ2 3:5135Punt7–0
DALQ2 2:56422Punt7–0
NYGQ2 1:3139Punt7–0
DALQ2 0:32442Missed field goal7–0
DALQ3 15:0033Punt7–0
NYGQ3 13:5139Punt7–0
DALQ3 12:2039Punt7–0
NYGQ3 10:391035Field goal7–3
DALQ3 5:50736Turnover7–3
NYGQ3 1:50261Touchdown7–10
DALQ3 1:0735Punt7–10
NYGQ4 14:411054Turnover7–10
DALQ4 9:40510Punt7–10
NYGQ4 6:5538Punt7–10
DALQ4 4:4039Punt7–10
NYGQ4 3:0034Punt7–10
DALQ4 2:39314Turnover7–10
NYGQ4 2:1337Punt7–10
DALQ4 1:0640Turnover on downs7–10
NYGQ4 0:4800End of half7–10

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott17/3716512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott241074.50
Dak Prescott111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrance Williams56761
Cole Beasley47410
Jason Witten47260
Lance Dunbar35120
Dez Bryant19100
Brice Butler0100
Ezekiel Elliott0200

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning17/2819311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings15453.00
Paul Perkins15453.00
Bobby Rainey155.00
Eli Manning2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.49941
Sterling Shepard34390
Will Tye22190
Rashad Jennings22120
Jerell Adams22110
Shane Vereen12100
Victor Cruz1440
Bobby Rainey1140
Paul Perkins1100
Roger Lewis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.40