Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.4est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.126EPA / play-0.074
- 48.6%Success rate40.8%
- +0.226EPA / dropback-0.035
- +0.006EPA / rush-0.142
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.3%
- +4.07CPOE-1.63
- 43.8%Third-down rate36.0%
- 70.2%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 2.52Points / drive1.46
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 17/37 | 165 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 24 | 107 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Williams | 5 | 6 | 76 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 1 | 9 | 10 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 17/28 | 193 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 4 | 9 | 94 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Will Tye | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jerell Adams | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Roger Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.10
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.40