Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutKarl JosephSToe· DNP
- OutShilique CalhounLBKnee· DNP
- OutStacy McGeeDTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableCory JamesLBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableDarius LathamDTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableKelechi OsemeleGKnee· Limited
Chiefs
- QuestionableDontari PoeDTBack· Full
- QuestionableKendall ReyesDEKnee· Full
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:27 | 6 | 12 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| KC | Q1 11:34 | 7 | 48 | Turnover on downs | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:29 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–0 |
| KC | Q1 6:22 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 2:59 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–0 |
| KC | Q1 1:29 | 5 | 70 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 14:51 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–7 |
| KC | Q2 13:30 | 8 | 83 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| LV | Q2 8:34 | 3 | 8 | Opp touchdown | 3–21 |
| LV | Q2 6:25 | 15 | 90 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| KC | Q2 0:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–21 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| LV | Q3 14:06 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 13–21 |
| KC | Q3 13:09 | 1 | -6 | Turnover | 13–21 |
| LV | Q3 12:54 | 7 | 11 | Turnover on downs | 13–21 |
| KC | Q3 11:02 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 13–21 |
| LV | Q3 8:10 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 13–21 |
| KC | Q3 5:58 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 13–21 |
| LV | Q3 3:04 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 13–21 |
| KC | Q3 0:25 | 8 | 56 | Punt | 13–21 |
| LV | Q4 10:52 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 13–21 |
| KC | Q4 9:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–21 |
| LV | Q4 7:25 | 14 | 52 | Turnover on downs | 13–21 |
| KC | Q4 1:56 | 3 | 10 | End of half | 13–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 17/26 | 264 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Ware | 20 | 56 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 8 | 101 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 3 | 70 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 6 | 66 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.52
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.