Closing spread
SEA -15
Total
39.5
Model margin
+11.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.203EPA / play+0.022
- 36.6%Success rate44.0%
- -0.222EPA / dropback+0.102
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.126
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.7%
- -6.92CPOE+4.81
- 32.2%Third-down rate38.7%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate41.8%
- 0.97Points / drive1.88
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 13/25 | 135 | 0 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 5/9 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 4 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Brian Quick | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 1 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 19/26 | 229 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Rawls | 21 | 34 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 7 | 8 | 130 | 1 |
| Doug Baldwin | 5 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Thomas Rawls | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
77.1%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.50
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+4.02
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+11.25