2016 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

3·24

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 36°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SEA -15

Total

39.5

Model margin

+11.3est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

1.5%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.203EPA / play+0.022
  • 36.6%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.222EPA / dropback+0.102
  • -0.170EPA / rush-0.126
  • 6.8%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -6.92CPOE+4.81
  • 32.2%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 47.6%Red-zone TD rate41.8%
  • 0.97Points / drive1.88
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 28–24 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ SEA27–31SEA
2025 · W16LA @ SEA37–38SEA
2025 · W11SEA @ LA19–21RAMS
2024 · W18SEA @ LA30–25SEA
2024 · W9LA @ SEA26–20RAMS
2023 · W11SEA @ LA16–17RAMS
2023 · W1LA @ SEA30–13RAMS
2022 · W18LA @ SEA16–19SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–SEA
LAQ1 15:003-11Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:25620Punt0–0
LAQ1 9:561260Turnover on downs0–0
SEAQ1 4:081573Touchdown0–7
LAQ2 12:2141Turnover on downs0–7
SEAQ2 10:4830Field goal0–10
LAQ2 8:4561Punt0–10
SEAQ2 6:47310Punt0–10
LAQ2 4:34846Field goal3–10
SEAQ2 0:5523End of half3–10
SEAQ3 15:00837Punt3–10
LAQ3 10:243-5Punt3–10
SEAQ3 7:49966Touchdown3–17
LAQ3 3:1231Punt3–17
SEAQ3 1:32567Touchdown3–24
LAQ4 14:491662Turnover on downs3–24
SEAQ4 7:19826Turnover3–24
LAQ4 3:08628Turnover on downs3–24
SEAQ4 1:5700End of half3–24

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff13/2513500
Case Keenum5/93200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley14382.70
Tavon Austin2136.50
Malcolm Brown1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt48500
Brian Quick35460
Pharoh Cooper33210
Tyler Higbee11150
Tavon Austin35140
Malcolm Brown11120
Mike Thomas1460
Lance Kendricks1450
Todd Gurley14-20

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson19/2622931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Rawls21341.60
Russell Wilson6122.00
Jimmy Graham100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett781301
Doug Baldwin56351
Jimmy Graham12310
Luke Willson33191
Thomas Rawls2250
Jermaine Kearse0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +156.4%2.3%3.0%4.8%3.5%3.6%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

1.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

77.1%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.02
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+11.25