Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Total
40
Model margin
-2.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.069
- 42.2%Success rate40.5%
- +0.062EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.070
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.3%
- +4.52CPOE-4.70
- 37.0%Third-down rate36.5%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 1.80Points / drive1.40
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 12/18 | 236 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 19 | 51 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 4 | 108 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 3 | 52 | 1 |
| Dion Sims | 4 | 4 | 31 | 2 |
| MarQueis Gray | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Petty | 20/36 | 235 | 1 | 2 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5/10 | 31 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 16 | 84 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Bryce Petty | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 6 | 80 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 11 | 12 | 78 | 0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 5 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Charone Peake | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | 11 | 16 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.1%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.27
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.69
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.22