2016 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Matt Moore

34·13

Jets

New York

QB Bryce Petty

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 35°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

Total

40

Model margin

-2.2est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJets
  • -0.004EPA / play-0.069
  • 42.2%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.062EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.092EPA / rush-0.070
  • 10.4%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +4.52CPOE-4.70
  • 37.0%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.40
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00770Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 11:32512Punt0–7
NYJQ1 8:33727Turnover0–7
MIAQ1 4:1534Punt0–7
NYJQ1 2:4146Punt0–7
MIAQ2 0:20852Touchdown6–7
NYJQ2 10:57648Turnover6–7
MIAQ2 8:0433Punt6–7
NYJQ2 6:22516Turnover on downs6–7
MIAQ2 3:49358Touchdown13–7
NYJQ2 1:581158Field goal13–10
MIAQ2 0:1820End of half13–10
MIAQ3 15:00516Turnover13–10
NYJQ3 12:44411Opp touchdown20–10
NYJQ3 10:3010Turnover20–10
MIAQ3 10:15560Touchdown27–10
NYJQ3 7:4334Punt33–10
MIAQ3 6:36166Touchdown34–10
NYJQ3 6:26514Punt34–10
MIAQ3 4:4232Punt34–10
NYJQ3 2:18952Turnover on downs34–10
MIAQ4 12:26414Punt34–10
NYJQ4 9:51837Field goal34–13
MIAQ4 5:43616Punt34–13
NYJQ4 0:59617Turnover34–13

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore12/1823641

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi19512.70
Kenyan Drake5163.20
Damien Williams300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry341081
Kenny Stills13521
Dion Sims44312
MarQueis Gray33280
DeVante Parker13170

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Petty20/3623512
Ryan Fitzpatrick5/103101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell16845.30
Matt Forte4215.30
Ryan Fitzpatrick2115.50
Bryce Petty100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen46801
Bilal Powell1112780
Quincy Enunwa59640
Charone Peake24180
Brandon Marshall111160
Matt Forte1170
Austin Seferian-Jenkins1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.1%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.27
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.69
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.22