Closing spread
OAK -2.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutKarl JosephSToe· DNP
- OutShilique CalhounLBKnee· DNP
- OutStacy McGeeDTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableAmari CooperWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableDarius LathamDEAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableKelechi OsemeleGKnee· Limited
- QuestionableMalcolm SmithLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableMichael CrabtreeWRFinger· Limited
- QuestionablePerry RileyLBHamstring· Limited
Chargers
- OutMelvin GordonRBHip· DNP
- DoubtfulCraig MagerCBShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableJeremy ButlerWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableOrlando FranklinGRib· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 91 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 10:32 | 10 | 44 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q1 4:53 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LV | Q1 3:14 | 3 | 33 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q1 1:44 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 14:51 | 8 | 47 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q2 9:49 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 8:10 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q2 5:27 | 13 | 63 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LV | Q2 1:29 | 7 | 70 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q2 0:22 | 1 | 5 | End of half | 10–10 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 50 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| LAC | Q3 10:48 | 7 | 77 | Touchdown | 13–16 |
| LV | Q3 6:14 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–16 |
| LAC | Q3 4:10 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 13–16 |
| LV | Q3 0:33 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 13–16 |
| LAC | Q4 13:54 | 4 | 9 | Turnover | 13–16 |
| LV | Q4 11:35 | 5 | 11 | Field goal | 16–16 |
| LAC | Q4 8:38 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 16–16 |
| LV | Q4 6:27 | 8 | 54 | Field goal | 19–16 |
| LAC | Q4 2:40 | 4 | -5 | Turnover | 19–16 |
| LV | Q4 1:37 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 19–16 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.50
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.