Closing spread
SEA -9
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play+0.022
- 45.3%Success rate44.0%
- +0.043EPA / dropback+0.102
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.126
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.7%
- -0.78CPOE+4.81
- 40.4%Third-down rate38.7%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate41.8%
- 1.89Points / drive1.88
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 16/26 | 284 | 1 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 28 | 95 | 3.4 | 3 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Nelson | 3 | 7 | 132 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Brittan Golden | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 29/45 | 350 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 8 | 8 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 13 | 19 | 171 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 3 | 43 | 1 |
| Paul Richardson | 4 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 4 | 9 | 37 | 1 |
| Alex Collins | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.75