2016 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

34·31

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 39°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

SEA -9

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.005EPA / play+0.022
  • 45.3%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.043EPA / dropback+0.102
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.126
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -0.78CPOE+4.81
  • 40.4%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 65.4%Red-zone TD rate41.8%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.88
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SEA
ARIQ1 15:004-3Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:014-3Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 10:46523Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 7:5231Punt7–0
ARIQ1 6:3543Punt7–0
SEAQ1 5:05103Missed field goal7–0
ARIQ1 0:3134Punt7–0
SEAQ2 14:223-5Punt7–0
ARIQ2 12:32533Punt7–0
SEAQ2 9:06731Punt7–0
ARIQ2 5:23391Touchdown14–0
SEAQ2 3:53767Turnover on downs14–0
ARIQ2 1:1121Turnover14–0
SEAQ2 0:3230Field goal14–3
ARIQ2 0:1500End of half14–3
SEAQ3 15:001476Touchdown14–10
ARIQ3 8:20627Missed field goal14–10
SEAQ3 5:50612Punt14–10
ARIQ3 3:311059Touchdown21–10
SEAQ4 13:32980Touchdown21–18
ARIQ4 8:49475Touchdown28–18
SEAQ4 6:4749Turnover on downs28–18
ARIQ4 5:0936Field goal31–18
SEAQ4 4:10675Touchdown31–25
ARIQ4 2:4832Punt31–25
SEAQ4 2:22645Touchdown31–31
ARIQ4 1:00750Field goal34–31

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer16/2628410
Larry Fitzgerald0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson28953.43
Carson Palmer1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
J.J. Nelson371321
David Johnson47410
Jermaine Gresham24400
Larry Fitzgerald44310
Brittan Golden12220
John Brown12120
Kerwynn Williams1160

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson29/4535040

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson10363.60
Alex Collins7284.00
Thomas Rawls881.00
Doug Baldwin263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin13191711
Jimmy Graham23431
Paul Richardson45421
Tyler Lockett23380
Jermaine Kearse49371
Alex Collins44190
Thomas Rawls0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +92.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.75