Closing spread
SD -13.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 11–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CLE are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Quinn | 25/45 | 271 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Cribbs | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chris Jennings | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Brady Quinn | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Moore | 6 | 11 | 80 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 4 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 7 | 11 | 62 | 2 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 2 | 7 | 24 | 1 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Jennings | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Robert Royal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.96
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.