Closing spread
SD -13.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutEric WeddleSKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulLuis CastilloDECalf· DNP
- DoubtfulNick HardwickCAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulShawne MerrimanLBFoot· DNP
- ProbableMike TolbertRBNot Injury Related· DNP
- ProbableJacob HesterRBKnee· Full
- ProbableKevin BurnettLBHead· Full
- ProbableMike ScifresPleft Groin· Full
- ProbableOgemdi NwagbuoDTAnkle· Full
- ProbableShaun PhillipsLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableTravis JohnsonDEGroin· Full
Browns
- OutKenyon ColemanDEKnee· DNP
- QuestionableEric WrightCBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableKamerion WimbleyLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableLawrence VickersRBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableRex HadnotGKnee· DNP
- ProbableBlake CostanzoLBShoulder· Full
- ProbableChris JenningsRBShoulder· Full
- ProbableDavid BowensLBKnee· Full
- ProbableHank FraleyCElbow· Full
- ProbableJake AllenWRHip· Full
- ProbableMike AdamsCBFinger· Full
- ProbableRobert RoyalTEThigh· Full
Win probability
- Browns
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 11–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CLE are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 82 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 8:37 | 11 | 55 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| CLE | Q1 2:59 | 6 | 48 | Missed field goal | 9–7 |
| LAC | Q1 0:58 | 1 | 66 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| CLE | Q1 0:45 | 16 | 69 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q2 6:28 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 10–7 |
| CLE | Q2 2:33 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q2 0:34 | 5 | 46 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 85 | Touchdown | 20–7 |
| CLE | Q3 10:30 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 20–7 |
| LAC | Q3 9:20 | 6 | 83 | Touchdown | 27–7 |
| CLE | Q3 5:58 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 27–7 |
| LAC | Q3 4:14 | 10 | 43 | Turnover on downs | 27–7 |
| CLE | Q4 13:45 | 9 | 68 | Touchdown | 27–14 |
| LAC | Q4 9:15 | 9 | 77 | Field goal | 30–14 |
| CLE | Q4 4:12 | 8 | 53 | Touchdown | 30–20 |
| LAC | Q4 1:55 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 30–20 |
| CLE | Q4 1:54 | 10 | 28 | Field goal | 30–23 |
| LAC | Q4 0:39 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 30–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Quinn | 25/45 | 271 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Cribbs | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chris Jennings | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Brady Quinn | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Moore | 6 | 11 | 80 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 4 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 7 | 11 | 62 | 2 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 2 | 7 | 24 | 1 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Jennings | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Robert Royal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.96
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.