2016 · Week 16 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

22·21

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

LA -6

Total

39.5

Model margin

-3.6est.

LA perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Rams wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapRams
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.203
  • 39.6%Success rate36.6%
  • -0.036EPA / dropback-0.222
  • -0.169EPA / rush-0.170
  • 8.0%Explosive rate6.8%
  • -5.73CPOE-6.92
  • 34.6%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
  • 1.59Points / drive0.97
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999

Meetings average 43.4 points. LA are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1SF @ LA27–7SF
2025 · W10LA @ SF42–26RAMS
2025 · W5SF @ LA26–23SF
2024 · W15LA @ SF12–6RAMS
2024 · W3SF @ LA24–27RAMS
2023 · W18LA @ SF21–20RAMS
2023 · W2SF @ LA30–23SF
2022 · W8SF @ LA31–14SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–LA
SFQ1 15:00622Punt0–0
LAQ1 12:11630Turnover0–0
SFQ1 9:38222Touchdown7–0
LAQ1 9:01952Touchdown7–7
SFQ1 4:07310Turnover7–13
LAQ1 2:41130Touchdown7–14
SFQ1 2:33927Punt7–14
LAQ2 12:32510Punt7–14
SFQ2 9:1633Punt7–14
LAQ2 7:4535Punt7–14
SFQ2 6:06941Punt7–14
LAQ2 1:51419Punt7–14
SFQ2 0:3839Punt7–14
LAQ2 0:0400End of half7–14
LAQ3 15:00910Punt7–14
SFQ3 10:27415Punt7–14
LAQ3 8:193-1Punt7–14
SFQ3 6:5631Punt7–14
LAQ3 5:203-9Punt7–14
SFQ3 3:54424Punt7–14
LAQ3 1:16519Punt7–14
SFQ4 12:5210Turnover7–14
LAQ4 12:4559Touchdown7–21
SFQ4 10:321490Touchdown14–21
LAQ4 5:0634Punt14–21
SFQ4 3:101063Touchdown22–21
LAQ4 0:3120Turnover22–21
SFQ4 0:1610Punt22–21

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick28/3726621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde13382.90
Shaun Draughn10171.70
Colin Kaepernick6152.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Streater67631
Jeremy Kerley58620
Shaun Draughn67480
Garrett Celek47390
Carlos Hyde33241
Aaron Burbridge23150
DuJuan Harris11140
Chris Harper1110

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff11/249012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley23672.91
Tavon Austin3268.71
Jared Goff242.00
Malcolm Brown122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lance Kendricks34360
Todd Gurley33200
Kenny Britt14150
Tavon Austin27140
Tyler Higbee2251
Brian Quick0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.8%3.2%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.4%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.02
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-3.61