Closing spread
LA -6
Total
39.5
Model margin
-3.6est.
LA perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.203
- 39.6%Success rate36.6%
- -0.036EPA / dropback-0.222
- -0.169EPA / rush-0.170
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.8%
- -5.73CPOE-6.92
- 34.6%Third-down rate32.2%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 1.59Points / drive0.97
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. LA are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 28/37 | 266 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 13 | 38 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Streater | 6 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 5 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 6 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 3 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Aaron Burbridge | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| DuJuan Harris | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Harper | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 11/24 | 90 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 23 | 67 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Tavon Austin | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Kendricks | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Brian Quick | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.4%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.58
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-4.02
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-3.61