Closing spread
ARI -7
Total
39
Model margin
-8.0est.
LA perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play-0.203
- 45.3%Success rate36.6%
- +0.043EPA / dropback-0.222
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.170
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.8%
- -0.78CPOE-6.92
- 40.4%Third-down rate32.2%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 1.89Points / drive0.97
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. LA are 25-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/38 | 255 | 3 | 1 |
| Drew Stanton | 2/4 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerwynn Williams | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Andre Ellington | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Nelson | 4 | 12 | 75 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 7 | 43 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 4 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 2 | 37 | 1 |
| John Brown | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brittan Golden | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 13/20 | 120 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Mannion | 3/6 | 19 | 0 | 1 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Sean Mannion | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Brian Quick | 2 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Paul McRoberts | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chase Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
28.6%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.72
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-4.02
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-8.00