Closing spread
ARI -7
Total
39
Model margin
-8.0est.
LA perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Cardinals
- OutD.J. HumphriesTConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableJohn BrownWRIllness· Limited
- QuestionableMarcus CooperCBBack· Limited
- QuestionableRobert NkemdicheDTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableSio MooreLBAnkle· Limited
Rams
- DoubtfulKenny BrittWRShoulder· DNP
- DoubtfulLamarcus JoynerCBAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulRob HavensteinTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableMike ThomasWRHip· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play-0.203
- 45.3%Success rate36.6%
- +0.043EPA / dropback-0.222
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.170
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.8%
- -0.78CPOE-6.92
- 40.4%Third-down rate32.2%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 1.89Points / drive0.97
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. LA are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 61 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:34 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–0 |
| ARI | Q1 8:54 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 7:51 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 3–0 |
| ARI | Q1 5:43 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 3:23 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 3–0 |
| ARI | Q1 1:13 | 5 | 2 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| LA | Q2 14:51 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| ARI | Q2 14:32 | 5 | 19 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| LA | Q2 12:25 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–0 |
| ARI | Q2 10:55 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 13–0 |
| LA | Q2 7:42 | 9 | 61 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| ARI | Q2 2:34 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–3 |
| LA | Q2 1:59 | 4 | 11 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| ARI | Q2 0:48 | 6 | 31 | Field goal | 16–6 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -14 | Punt | 22–6 |
| ARI | Q3 13:20 | 1 | 37 | Touchdown | 23–6 |
| LA | Q3 13:11 | 3 | -13 | Punt | 23–6 |
| ARI | Q3 11:44 | 8 | 57 | Touchdown | 30–6 |
| LA | Q3 8:17 | 9 | 23 | Punt | 30–6 |
| ARI | Q3 2:50 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 30–6 |
| LA | Q4 14:10 | 2 | -3 | Turnover | 30–6 |
| ARI | Q4 13:23 | 6 | 11 | Touchdown | 37–6 |
| LA | Q4 11:35 | 7 | 25 | Opp touchdown | 44–6 |
| LA | Q4 8:06 | 6 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 44–6 |
| ARI | Q4 4:46 | 6 | 15 | Turnover | 44–6 |
| LA | Q4 1:46 | 3 | 3 | End of half | 44–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/38 | 255 | 3 | 1 |
| Drew Stanton | 2/4 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerwynn Williams | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Andre Ellington | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Nelson | 4 | 12 | 75 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 7 | 43 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 4 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 2 | 37 | 1 |
| John Brown | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brittan Golden | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 13/20 | 120 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Mannion | 3/6 | 19 | 0 | 1 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Sean Mannion | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Brian Quick | 2 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Paul McRoberts | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chase Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
28.6%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.72
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-4.02
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-8.00