Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play+0.052
- 40.7%Success rate45.3%
- -0.041EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.050
- 7.1%Explosive rate7.8%
- -0.41CPOE+2.98
- 38.2%Third-down rate38.9%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.63Points / drive1.86
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 32/49 | 267 | 0 | 1 |
| Ryan Mallett | 1/2 | 12 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Dixon | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Terrance West | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Pitta | 11 | 16 | 91 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 4 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 18/28 | 226 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Burkhead | 27 | 119 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Cedric Peerman | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Core | 4 | 5 | 82 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 7 | 11 | 67 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 3 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Cedric Peerman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.30
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.12