2016 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

10·27

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 40°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBengals
  • -0.060EPA / play+0.052
  • 40.7%Success rate45.3%
  • -0.041EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.050
  • 7.1%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -0.41CPOE+2.98
  • 38.2%Third-down rate38.9%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.86
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. CIN are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CIN
BALQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
CINQ1 14:06859Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 10:171263Field goal3–7
CINQ1 3:12754Touchdown3–14
BALQ2 15:001135Punt3–14
CINQ2 11:061167Field goal3–17
BALQ2 6:09958Turnover3–17
CINQ2 2:28679Field goal3–20
BALQ2 0:0300End of half3–20
CINQ3 15:00729Punt3–20
BALQ3 12:15610Punt3–20
CINQ3 9:35513Punt3–20
BALQ3 8:011568Turnover on downs3–20
CINQ3 2:54514Punt3–20
BALQ4 14:50315Punt3–20
CINQ4 13:30410Punt3–20
BALQ4 11:49870Touchdown10–20
CINQ4 8:37521Punt10–20
BALQ4 5:3945Turnover on downs10–20
CINQ4 4:44625Touchdown10–27
BALQ4 2:20212Turnover10–27
CINQ4 1:5312End of half10–27

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco32/4926701
Ryan Mallett1/21201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Dixon10444.41
Terrance West5183.60
Michael Campanaro11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dennis Pitta1116910
Breshad Perriman48620
Steve Smith35340
Mike Wallace44330
Kamar Aiken23220
Kenneth Dixon34190
Terrance West45170
Darren Waller0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton18/2822610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rex Burkhead271194.42
Cedric Peerman6152.50
Tyler Boyd11515.00
Andy Dalton441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cody Core45820
Brandon LaFell711670
Tyler Boyd23390
Rex Burkhead22250
C.J. Uzomah33131
Cedric Peerman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.30
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.12