Closing spread
MIN -6
Total
44
Model margin
+3.9est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play-0.042
- 44.1%Success rate42.5%
- -0.001EPA / dropback+0.075
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.253
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.1%
- -0.10CPOE+3.80
- 37.8%Third-down rate38.4%
- 52.5%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
- 1.41Points / drive1.65
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Barkley | 10/14 | 125 | 0 | 2 |
| David Fales | 2/5 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Meredith | 1/1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 23 | 135 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Bralon Addison | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| David Fales | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Meredith | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Bralon Addison | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Matt Barkley | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Josh Bellamy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 25/33 | 250 | 3 | 1 |
| Shaun Hill | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 16 | 89 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Sam Bradford | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Rudolph | 11 | 15 | 117 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 5 | 7 | 24 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Isaac Fruechte | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.16
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.90