2016 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Matt Barkley

10·38

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Bradford

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -6

Total

44

Model margin

+3.9est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapVikings
  • -0.042EPA / play-0.042
  • 44.1%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback+0.075
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.253
  • 10.0%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -0.10CPOE+3.80
  • 37.8%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 52.5%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
  • 1.41Points / drive1.65
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–MIN
MINQ1 15:00670Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 11:36859Turnover0–7
MINQ1 7:261394Field goal0–10
CHIQ2 14:5326Turnover0–10
MINQ2 14:13335Touchdown0–17
CHIQ2 12:51310Punt0–17
MINQ2 11:1434Punt0–17
CHIQ2 9:4417105Touchdown7–17
MINQ2 1:48620Punt7–17
MINQ2 1:00521Touchdown7–24
CHIQ2 0:18131Field goal10–24
CHIQ3 15:00957Turnover10–24
MINQ3 9:251453Turnover10–24
CHIQ3 2:20620Turnover on downs10–24
MINQ4 14:07440Touchdown10–31
CHIQ4 12:11515Opp touchdown10–38
CHIQ4 9:51510Punt10–38
MINQ4 7:18640Turnover on downs10–38
CHIQ4 3:26410Punt10–38
MINQ4 2:0000End of half10–38

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Barkley10/1412502
David Fales2/52200
Cameron Meredith1/1210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard231355.90
Jeremy Langford10262.60
Josh Bellamy2189.00
Bralon Addison144.00
David Fales100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cameron Meredith46610
Jeremy Langford33410
Daniel Brown22180
Bralon Addison11110
Alshon Jeffery13100
MyCole Pruitt1160
Matt Barkley1121
Josh Bellamy0100
Deonte Thompson0200

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford25/3325031
Shaun Hill0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon16895.61
Sam Bradford12424.00
Matt Asiata8141.80
Shaun Hill3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Rudolph11151171
Cordarrelle Patterson12390
Matt Asiata33310
Jarius Wright57241
Jerick McKinnon34211
Charles D. Johnson11110
Adam Thielen1170
Isaac Fruechte0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.90