Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+7.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.085
- 39.2%Success rate46.0%
- -0.011EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.131EPA / rush-0.043
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.8%
- -1.42CPOE+1.74
- 36.2%Third-down rate41.9%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
- 1.37Points / drive2.24
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 29/40 | 232 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 19 | 152 | 8.0 | 0 |
| George Atkinson | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Robert Griffin III | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Corey Coleman | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrelle Pryor | 7 | 11 | 94 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 5 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Corey Coleman | 5 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Ricardo Louis | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 5 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Randall Telfer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Vitale | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landry Jones | 24/37 | 277 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 23 | 67 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| DeMarcus Ayers | 2 | -12 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Rogers | 6 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Cobi Hamilton | 3 | 4 | 54 | 1 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| DeMarcus Ayers | 5 | 12 | 44 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 3 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.1%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.57
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.08
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+7.30