2016 · Week 17 · Division

Final / OT

Browns

Cleveland

QB Robert Griffin

24·27

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Landry Jones

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+7.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.050EPA / play+0.085
  • 39.2%Success rate46.0%
  • -0.011EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.131EPA / rush-0.043
  • 9.2%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -1.42CPOE+1.74
  • 36.2%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
  • 1.37Points / drive2.24
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 42–14–1 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. PIT are 29-26-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT
2022 · W18CLE @ PIT14–28PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PIT
CLEQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
PITQ1 13:593-10Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:06855Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 7:4845Punt7–0
CLEQ1 5:38618Punt7–0
PITQ1 2:1038Punt7–0
CLEQ1 0:031167Touchdown14–0
PITQ2 9:21512Punt14–0
CLEQ2 7:16751Turnover14–0
PITQ2 3:3930Punt14–0
CLEQ2 2:0610Turnover14–0
PITQ2 2:01737Touchdown14–7
CLEQ2 0:3112End of half14–7
PITQ3 15:00516Punt14–7
CLEQ3 12:0231Punt14–7
PITQ3 9:5833Punt14–7
CLEQ3 7:57512Punt14–7
PITQ3 5:40522Turnover14–7
PITQ3 3:221173Touchdown14–14
CLEQ4 13:211044Missed field goal14–14
PITQ4 7:34561Touchdown14–21
CLEQ4 5:14368Touchdown21–21
PITQ4 3:283-6Punt21–21
CLEQ4 1:31347Turnover21–21
PITQ4 0:56516End of half21–21
CLEOT1763Field goal24–21
PITOT975Touchdown24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III29/4023221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell191528.00
George Atkinson7344.91
Robert Griffin III5326.40
Corey Coleman199.00
Duke Johnson144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrelle Pryor711940
Gary Barnidge55401
Corey Coleman59400
Ricardo Louis22220
Isaiah Crowell34160
Seth DeValve11121
Andrew Hawkins5590
Randall Telfer0100
Rashard Higgins0100
Danny Vitale11-10

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Landry Jones24/3727731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams23672.91
Fitzgerald Toussaint3144.70
DeMarcus Ayers2-12-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eli Rogers66610
Cobi Hamilton34541
Darrius Heyward-Bey14460
DeMarcus Ayers512441
DeAngelo Williams34271
Fitzgerald Toussaint22240
Jesse James23160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.0%5.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.1%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.08
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+7.30