Closing spread
KC -5.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chiefs
- OutJustin HoustonLBKnee· DNP
- QuestionablePhillip GainesCBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableSpencer WareRBRib· Limited
- DNPTamba HaliLBKnee
Chargers
- OutCraig MagerCBShoulder· DNP
- OutMelvin GordonRBHip· DNP
- DoubtfulKing DunlapTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableDenzel PerrymanLBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableJeremy ButlerWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableMatt SlausonCFoot· DNP
- QuestionableOrlando FranklinGShoulder· Limited
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. SD are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 55 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 10:16 | 9 | 53 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q1 5:20 | 12 | 73 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| KC | Q2 14:49 | 4 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q2 12:53 | 5 | 15 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| KC | Q2 10:35 | 10 | 29 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q2 6:09 | 10 | 57 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| KC | Q2 1:10 | 7 | 64 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 50 | Opp touchdown | 20–17 |
| KC | Q3 10:23 | 12 | 60 | Touchdown | 27–17 |
| LAC | Q3 3:48 | 4 | 26 | Opp touchdown | 34–17 |
| LAC | Q3 0:59 | 13 | 59 | Field goal | 34–20 |
| KC | Q4 10:19 | 9 | 31 | Field goal | 37–20 |
| LAC | Q4 4:31 | 11 | 94 | Touchdown | 37–27 |
| KC | Q4 2:08 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 37–27 |
| LAC | Q4 0:48 | 2 | 19 | End of half | 37–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 21/28 | 264 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charcandrick West | 16 | 58 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charcandrick West | 5 | 5 | 58 | 2 |
| Chris Conley | 4 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 1 | 42 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.04
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.