Closing spread
KC -5.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SD are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 21/28 | 264 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charcandrick West | 16 | 58 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charcandrick West | 5 | 5 | 58 | 2 |
| Chris Conley | 4 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 1 | 42 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.04
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.