2016 · Week 17 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 1mph
Closing spread
WAS -10
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play+0.118
- 40.8%Success rate48.2%
- -0.035EPA / dropback+0.202
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.033
- 7.3%Explosive rate10.6%
- -1.63CPOE+4.99
- 36.0%Third-down rate44.9%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate51.2%
- 1.46Points / drive2.32
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 17/27 | 180 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Perkins | 21 | 102 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 18 | 52 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tye | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Tavarres King | 1 | 1 | 44 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 5 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 22/35 | 287 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Kelley | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 4 | 7 | 96 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 5 | 6 | 40 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 6 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Maurice Harris | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+1.79