2016 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

19·10

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

WAS -10

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.074EPA / play+0.118
  • 40.8%Success rate48.2%
  • -0.035EPA / dropback+0.202
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.033
  • 7.3%Explosive rate10.6%
  • -1.63CPOE+4.99
  • 36.0%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate51.2%
  • 1.46Points / drive2.32
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 24-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–WAS
WASQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:4637Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:1033Punt0–0
NYGQ1 8:521266Field goal3–0
WASQ1 2:12510Punt3–0
NYGQ2 15:001171Touchdown10–0
WASQ2 9:20634Punt10–0
NYGQ2 6:29738Punt10–0
WASQ2 2:403-7Punt10–0
NYGQ2 1:30512Punt10–0
WASQ2 0:39334Missed field goal10–0
NYGQ3 15:001054Turnover on downs10–0
WASQ3 9:543-10Punt10–0
NYGQ3 8:1848Punt10–0
WASQ3 6:09457Turnover10–0
NYGQ3 4:0636Punt10–0
WASQ3 2:36433Field goal10–3
NYGQ3 0:2539Punt10–3
WASQ4 13:271284Touchdown10–10
NYGQ4 8:133-5Punt10–10
WASQ4 6:3530Punt10–10
NYGQ4 6:01758Field goal13–10
WASQ4 2:12532Turnover13–10
NYGQ4 1:1238Punt19–10
WASQ4 0:0615Opp touchdown19–10

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning17/2718000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Paul Perkins211024.90
Rashad Jennings18522.91
Sterling Shepard177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Will Tye45470
Tavarres King11440
Odell Beckham Jr.57440
Sterling Shepard35300
Victor Cruz2470
Rashad Jennings1150
Bobby Rainey1130
Paul Perkins0200

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins22/3528712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rob Kelley12332.80
Chris Thompson351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon47960
Vernon Davis23490
Jordan Reed56401
Chris Thompson68370
DeSean Jackson25340
Jamison Crowder23160
Maurice Harris12150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +107.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.16
  • Expected margin+1.79