Closing spread
SEA -11.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-2.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play-0.089
- 44.0%Success rate39.6%
- +0.102EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.169
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- +4.81CPOE-5.73
- 38.7%Third-down rate34.6%
- 41.8%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
- 1.88Points / drive1.59
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 19/32 | 258 | 1 | 0 |
| Trevone Boykin | 4/6 | 42 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 7 | 55 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Trevone Boykin | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 4 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Brandon Williams | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Tanner McEvoy | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Kasen Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 17/22 | 215 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Draughn | 21 | 41 | 2.0 | 2 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| DuJuan Harris | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Draughn | 4 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 6 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| Chris Harper | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Aaron Burbridge | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| DeAndre Smelter | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Rod Streater | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.2%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.92
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.18