2016 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

25·23

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SEA -11.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-2.2est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge map49ers
  • +0.022EPA / play-0.089
  • 44.0%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.102EPA / dropback-0.036
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.169
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +4.81CPOE-5.73
  • 38.7%Third-down rate34.6%
  • 41.8%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.59
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–SF
SFQ1 15:0020Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 14:1938Field goal3–0
SFQ1 13:03775Touchdown3–7
SEAQ1 9:3532Punt3–7
SFQ1 8:061580Touchdown3–14
SEAQ2 14:56846Field goal6–14
SFQ2 10:32523Turnover6–14
SEAQ2 7:44215Touchdown13–14
SFQ2 6:55514Punt13–14
SEAQ2 4:50591Touchdown19–14
SFQ2 3:0031Punt19–14
SEAQ2 1:3839Punt19–14
SFQ2 0:2837Turnover on downs19–14
SEAQ3 15:00726Punt19–14
SFQ3 11:383-15Punt19–14
SEAQ3 10:01544Field goal22–14
SFQ3 8:1439Punt22–14
SEAQ3 6:0340Safety22–16
SFQ3 5:044-3Punt22–16
SEAQ3 3:06862Field goal25–16
SFQ4 14:08519Punt25–16
SEAQ4 10:52515Punt25–16
SFQ4 8:04545Touchdown25–23
SEAQ4 5:421061End of half25–23

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson19/3225810
Trevone Boykin4/64200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins7557.90
Thomas Rawls8141.81
Trevone Boykin471.80
Paul Richardson155.00
Russell Wilson242.00
J.D. McKissic122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham47640
Doug Baldwin24440
Jermaine Kearse27440
Paul Richardson47400
Luke Willson33261
Brandon Williams11200
Tanner McEvoy22160
J.D. McKissic22160
Alex Collins1140
Kasen Williams0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick17/2221510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Draughn21412.02
Colin Kaepernick5163.20
Raheem Mostert166.00
DuJuan Harris4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shaun Draughn46680
Jeremy Kerley68610
Chris Harper33250
Aaron Burbridge12240
DeAndre Smelter11230
Garrett Celek1191
Rod Streater1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -11.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.2%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.92
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.18