Closing spread
DET -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play-0.024
- 41.8%Success rate39.1%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.056
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.165
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.2%
- -4.76CPOE-4.59
- 38.3%Third-down rate40.7%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.79Points / drive1.54
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 10–8–1 since 1999
DET have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 18/30 | 183 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 14 | 85 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 5 | 12 | 59 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stanton | 21/32 | 306 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 19 | 42 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Robert Hughes | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 5 | 9 | 69 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 2 | 5 | 54 | 2 |
| Robert Hughes | 1 | 1 | 49 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Troy Niklas | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.66