2014 · Week 11

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

6·14

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Drew Stanton

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

DET -1

Total

41.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.006EPA / play-0.024
  • 41.8%Success rate39.1%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.056
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.165
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -4.76CPOE-4.59
  • 38.3%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.54
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 10–9–1 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. ARI are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DET @ ARI45–21DET
2024 · W3DET @ ARI20–13DET
2021 · W15ARI @ DET12–30DET
2020 · W3DET @ ARI26–23DET
2019 · W1DET @ ARI27–27Tie
2018 · W14DET @ ARI17–3DET
2017 · W1ARI @ DET23–35DET
2015 · W5ARI @ DET42–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00775Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 12:0239Punt0–7
ARIQ1 9:48872Touchdown0–14
DETQ1 6:06548Field goal3–14
ARIQ1 2:46761Turnover3–14
DETQ2 14:161053Punt3–14
ARIQ2 9:00819Punt3–14
DETQ2 4:46518Punt3–14
ARIQ2 2:2724Turnover3–14
DETQ2 1:5239Field goal6–14
ARIQ2 0:2500End of half6–14
DETQ3 15:00540Punt6–14
ARIQ3 11:491037Punt6–14
DETQ3 6:34713Turnover6–14
ARIQ3 4:0535Punt6–14
DETQ3 2:2239Punt6–14
ARIQ3 0:25650Punt6–14
DETQ4 11:571052Turnover on downs6–14
ARIQ4 6:45418Punt6–14
DETQ4 4:34511Punt6–14
ARIQ4 2:42315End of half6–14

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford18/3018301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell14856.10
Golden Tate188.00
Theo Riddick221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson512590
Golden Tate22410
Joique Bell35300
Theo Riddick36240
Eric Ebron44220
Jeremy Ross1170

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Stanton21/3230622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Ellington19422.20
Stepfan Taylor263.00
Robert Hughes122.00
Drew Stanton4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Brown59690
Michael Floyd25542
Robert Hughes11490
John Carlson34370
Larry Fitzgerald24330
Rob Housler11270
Andre Ellington44240
Troy Niklas1150
Stepfan Taylor1140
Jaron Brown1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.9%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.66