2017 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

20·0

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 68°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CIN -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBengals
  • -0.052EPA / play-0.088
  • 42.5%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.054EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.150
  • 7.2%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -1.33CPOE-1.89
  • 35.3%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 63.2%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.49
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. CIN are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CIN
CINQ1 15:0059Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:381457Field goal3–0
CINQ1 4:44621Turnover3–0
BALQ1 1:3439Punt3–0
CINQ2 14:481286Turnover3–0
BALQ2 8:533-6Punt3–0
CINQ2 7:10411Punt3–0
BALQ2 5:46786Touchdown10–0
CINQ2 1:5224Turnover16–0
BALQ2 1:3112Touchdown17–0
CINQ2 1:2830Punt17–0
BALQ2 0:30424End of half17–0
BALQ3 15:0022Turnover17–0
CINQ3 14:06614Turnover17–0
BALQ3 10:441954Field goal20–0
CINQ3 1:0635Punt20–0
BALQ3 0:18414Punt20–0
CINQ4 12:23627Punt20–0
BALQ4 9:47310Punt20–0
CINQ4 7:16844Turnover on downs20–0
BALQ4 4:3339Punt20–0
CINQ4 4:0749Turnover20–0
BALQ4 2:5237Punt20–0
CINQ4 1:062-9End of half20–0

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco9/1712111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrance West19804.21
Javorius Allen21713.40
Danny Woodhead144.00
Michael Campanaro122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin24561
Danny Woodhead33330
Nick Boyle11140
Mike Wallace1180
Maxx Williams1150
Breshad Perriman1450
Benjamin Watson0100
Terrance West0100
Javorius Allen0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton16/3117004

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard7405.70
Jeremy Hill6264.30
Joe Mixon891.10
Andy Dalton122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green510740
Giovani Bernard12390
Brandon LaFell35240
Joe Mixon33150
Tyler Boyd14110
Tyler Kroft1150
Tyler Eifert1140
Cody Core0200
Jeremy Hill11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.22