Closing spread
CIN -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play-0.088
- 42.5%Success rate39.2%
- -0.054EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.150
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.8%
- -1.33CPOE-1.89
- 35.3%Third-down rate34.7%
- 63.2%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.79Points / drive1.49
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 9/17 | 121 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance West | 19 | 80 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Javorius Allen | 21 | 71 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 2 | 4 | 56 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 16/31 | 170 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 8 | 9 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 5 | 10 | 74 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Cody Core | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.22