Closing spread
DAL -6
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.106EPA / play+0.008
- 41.1%Success rate43.8%
- -0.099EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.119EPA / rush+0.027
- 6.2%Explosive rate7.8%
- -3.91CPOE-0.45
- 32.5%Third-down rate43.3%
- 51.3%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 1.19Points / drive1.85
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 29/38 | 220 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Perkins | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Lewis | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 9 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 7 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 24/39 | 268 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 24 | 104 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Williams | 6 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 7 | 9 | 59 | 1 |
| Dez Bryant | 2 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 5 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 1 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.20
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.94