2017 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

3·19

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -6

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.106EPA / play+0.008
  • 41.1%Success rate43.8%
  • -0.099EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.119EPA / rush+0.027
  • 6.2%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -3.91CPOE-0.45
  • 32.5%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 51.3%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 1.19Points / drive1.85
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DAL
DALQ1 15:00833Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:073-1Punt0–0
DALQ1 9:23851Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 6:2535Punt0–3
DALQ1 5:231451Field goal0–6
NYGQ2 12:45523Punt0–6
DALQ2 9:27635Punt0–6
NYGQ2 6:44515Punt0–6
DALQ2 3:48744Touchdown0–13
NYGQ2 1:4138Punt0–13
DALQ2 1:19551Field goal0–16
NYGQ2 0:0500End of half0–16
NYGQ3 15:001568Field goal3–16
DALQ3 5:16540Punt3–16
NYGQ3 1:38925Punt3–16
DALQ4 12:361048Punt3–16
NYGQ4 8:26231Turnover3–16
DALQ4 7:481039Field goal3–19
NYGQ4 1:551160End of half3–19

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning29/3822001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Paul Perkins7162.30
Orleans Darkwa3144.70
Sterling Shepard166.00
Eli Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roger Lewis46540
Shane Vereen910510
Sterling Shepard78440
Evan Engram45440
Brandon Marshall14100
Rhett Ellison1190
Paul Perkins2390
Orleans Darkwa11-10

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott24/3926810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott241044.30
Dak Prescott3248.00
Alfred Morris410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrance Williams67680
Jason Witten79591
Dez Bryant29430
Ezekiel Elliott55360
Cole Beasley35320
Brice Butler13300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.94