2017 · Week 1 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
PHI -2
Total
49.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play-0.051
- 43.3%Success rate40.8%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.203
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.1%
- +0.38CPOE+1.00
- 42.0%Third-down rate32.5%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 2.12Points / drive1.61
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 26/39 | 307 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 14 | 46 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 8 | 8 | 93 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 6 | 8 | 86 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 3 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 23/40 | 240 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrelle Pryor | 6 | 11 | 66 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 4 | 5 | 52 | 1 |
| Jordan Reed | 5 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 3 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Brian Quick | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.10
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.36