2017 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

30·17

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -2

Total

49.5

Model margin

-0.4est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Nothing filed.

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCommanders
  • +0.051EPA / play-0.051
  • 43.3%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.203
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +0.38CPOE+1.00
  • 42.0%Third-down rate32.5%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.61
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–21 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI
2023 · W4WAS @ PHI31–34PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–WAS
WASQ1 15:00610Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:35356Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 11:28523Turnover7–0
PHIQ1 9:58624Turnover7–0
WASQ1 6:29414Punt7–0
PHIQ1 4:4937Punt7–0
PHIQ1 2:43839Touchdown13–0
WASQ2 13:23621Punt13–0
PHIQ2 9:26314Opp touchdown13–7
PHIQ2 8:30727Punt13–7
WASQ2 3:56869Touchdown13–14
PHIQ2 1:17943Field goal16–14
PHIQ3 15:00951Field goal19–14
WASQ3 10:381656Field goal19–17
PHIQ3 2:06529Punt19–17
WASQ4 14:51750Turnover19–17
PHIQ4 12:21934Punt19–17
WASQ4 6:4332Punt19–17
PHIQ4 5:46533Field goal22–17
WASQ4 1:592-5Opp touchdown30–17
WASQ4 1:29624Turnover on downs30–17
PHIQ4 0:2500End of half30–17

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz26/3930721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount14463.30
Carson Wentz461.50
Wendell Smallwood441.00
Darren Sproles221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz88930
Nelson Agholor68861
Darren Sproles58430
Alshon Jeffery37380
Torrey Smith13300
Brent Celek12110
Wendell Smallwood1150
LeGarrette Blount1111

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins23/4024011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kirk Cousins4307.50
Rob Kelley10303.00
Chris Thompson341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrelle Pryor611660
Ryan Grant46610
Chris Thompson45521
Jordan Reed58360
Jamison Crowder37140
Brian Quick11110
Vernon Davis0100
Rob Kelley0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -22.7%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.1%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.36