2017 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

21·18

Browns

Cleveland

QB DeShone Kizer

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

PIT -10

Total

47

Model margin

-2.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.076EPA / play-0.146
  • 46.0%Success rate38.4%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback-0.169
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.096
  • 9.4%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +3.69CPOE-5.42
  • 43.8%Third-down rate33.6%
  • 57.6%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
  • 2.22Points / drive1.07
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. CLE are 26-30-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CLE @ PIT6–27PIT
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CLE
CLEQ1 15:003-4Opp touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 12:44712Punt7–0
PITQ1 7:59514Punt7–0
CLEQ1 5:481347Touchdown7–7
PITQ1 0:22622Punt7–7
CLEQ2 12:57411Punt7–7
PITQ2 11:13510Punt7–7
CLEQ2 8:42420Punt7–7
PITQ2 7:21416Punt7–7
CLEQ2 5:1834Punt7–7
PITQ2 3:53895Touchdown14–7
CLEQ2 0:45313End of half14–7
PITQ3 15:003-8Punt14–7
CLEQ3 13:56653Field goal14–10
PITQ3 9:27734Touchdown21–10
CLEQ3 5:371111Turnover21–10
PITQ3 1:13837Turnover21–10
CLEQ4 12:053-3Punt21–10
PITQ4 10:35717Punt21–10
CLEQ4 6:41873Touchdown21–18
PITQ4 3:36461End of half21–18

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger24/3626321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell10323.20
James Conner4112.80
Ben Roethlisberger3-8-2.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown11111820
Jesse James68412
Le'Veon Bell36150
Martavis Bryant26140
Eli Rogers24110
Vance McDonald0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
DeShone Kizer20/3022211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell17331.90
DeShone Kizer5173.41
Matt Dayes372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Coleman56531
Seth DeValve45420
Isaiah Crowell22330
Ricardo Louis23320
Duke Johnson25200
David Njoku22200
Kenny Britt13130
Matt Dayes2290
Kasen Williams0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -103.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

3.00%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.7%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.13
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.39