Closing spread
PIT -10
Total
47
Model margin
-2.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.146
- 46.0%Success rate38.4%
- +0.177EPA / dropback-0.169
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.096
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.9%
- +3.69CPOE-5.42
- 43.8%Third-down rate33.6%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
- 2.22Points / drive1.07
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 24/36 | 263 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| James Conner | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | -8 | -2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 11 | 11 | 182 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 6 | 8 | 41 | 2 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShone Kizer | 20/30 | 222 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 17 | 33 | 1.9 | 0 |
| DeShone Kizer | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Matt Dayes | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Coleman | 5 | 6 | 53 | 1 |
| Seth DeValve | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Ricardo Louis | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Matt Dayes | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kasen Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
3.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.7%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.13
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.39