Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.146EPA / play-0.052
- 38.4%Success rate42.5%
- -0.169EPA / dropback-0.054
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.050
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.2%
- -5.42CPOE-1.33
- 33.6%Third-down rate35.3%
- 50.5%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
- 1.07Points / drive1.79
- 3.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShone Kizer | 15/31 | 182 | 0 | 3 |
| Kevin Hogan | 5/11 | 118 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| DeShone Kizer | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Hogan | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Higgins | 7 | 11 | 95 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 2 | 4 | 61 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 3 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Ricardo Louis | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 3 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Randall Telfer | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Corey Coleman | 1 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sammie Coates | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 25/34 | 217 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javorius Allen | 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Michael Campanaro | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Watson | 8 | 8 | 91 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 5 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Terrance West | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.76
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.50