2017 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB DeShone Kizer

10·24

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+5.5est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRavens
  • -0.146EPA / play-0.052
  • 38.4%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.169EPA / dropback-0.054
  • -0.096EPA / rush-0.050
  • 8.9%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -5.42CPOE-1.33
  • 33.6%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 50.5%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
  • 1.07Points / drive1.79
  • 3.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. BAL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BAL
CLEQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:15626Punt0–0
CLEQ1 10:06629Turnover0–0
BALQ1 7:30729Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 3:56859Turnover0–7
BALQ1 0:28410Turnover0–7
CLEQ2 13:41617Punt0–7
BALQ2 10:43664Touchdown0–14
CLEQ2 7:17678Touchdown7–14
BALQ2 4:5647Punt7–14
CLEQ2 2:4730Punt7–14
BALQ2 1:43528Missed field goal7–14
CLEQ2 0:57312Turnover7–14
BALQ2 0:19340Touchdown7–21
CLEQ2 0:0100End of half7–21
BALQ3 15:00519Punt7–21
CLEQ3 12:09757Field goal10–21
BALQ3 9:213-2Punt10–21
CLEQ3 8:1931Punt10–21
BALQ3 6:151053Field goal10–24
CLEQ4 14:561063Turnover10–24
BALQ4 11:41842Turnover10–24
CLEQ4 6:3530Turnover10–24
BALQ4 6:09622Punt10–24
CLEQ4 3:401367Turnover on downs10–24
BALQ4 0:2800End of half10–24

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
DeShone Kizer15/3118203
Kevin Hogan5/1111811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell10373.70
DeShone Kizer5265.20
Duke Johnson4215.30
Kevin Hogan155.00
Rashard Higgins144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashard Higgins711950
Seth DeValve24610
Duke Johnson36590
Ricardo Louis22270
David Njoku34271
Randall Telfer11200
Corey Coleman1790
Kenny Britt1220
Isaiah Crowell0100
Sammie Coates0400

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco25/3421721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javorius Allen14664.70
Alex Collins7426.00
Terrance West8222.81
Michael Campanaro155.00
Maxx Williams122.00
Joe Flacco1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Benjamin Watson88910
Javorius Allen56351
Jeremy Maclin45311
Terrance West22230
Maxx Williams44210
Nick Boyle1190
Mike Wallace1370
Breshad Perriman0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.6%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.50