Closing spread
SEA -13.5
Total
42
Model margin
+0.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play-0.023
- 41.2%Success rate41.3%
- -0.001EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.192
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.4%
- -3.27CPOE+4.52
- 39.5%Third-down rate37.4%
- 45.0%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 1.75Points / drive1.68
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 15/27 | 99 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 15 | 124 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 23/39 | 198 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 20 | 93 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 6 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 6 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 2 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| Amara Darboh | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tanner McEvoy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.48
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.22