2017 · Week 2 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brian Hoyer

9·12

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 65°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

SEA -13.5

Total

42

Model margin

+0.2est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.041EPA / play-0.023
  • 41.2%Success rate41.3%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.192
  • 9.2%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -3.27CPOE+4.52
  • 39.5%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 45.0%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.68
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–SEA
SEAQ1 15:001564Field goal0–3
SFQ1 8:3834Punt0–3
SEAQ1 7:0731Punt0–3
SFQ1 5:3910Turnover0–3
SEAQ1 5:31927Field goal0–6
SFQ1 0:49413Punt0–6
SEAQ2 13:31836Punt0–6
SFQ2 9:46428Punt0–6
SEAQ2 7:46633Punt0–6
SFQ2 4:32567Field goal3–6
SEAQ2 1:5537Punt3–6
SFQ2 0:56634Field goal6–6
SEAQ2 0:1700End of half6–6
SFQ3 15:00611Punt6–6
SEAQ3 11:571243Punt6–6
SFQ3 6:4935Punt6–6
SEAQ3 4:453-1Punt6–6
SFQ3 3:50525Punt6–6
SEAQ3 1:2530Punt6–6
SFQ3 0:34954Field goal9–6
SEAQ4 11:361167Touchdown9–12
SFQ4 7:0637Punt9–12
SEAQ4 4:47541End of half9–12

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer15/279901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde151248.30
Matt Breida4358.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon35260
Marquise Goodwin36260
Carlos Hyde36190
George Kittle22130
Garrett Celek1160
Trent Taylor2460
Matt Breida1230

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson23/3919810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson20934.70
Russell Wilson12342.80
Thomas Rawls540.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett69640
Doug Baldwin69440
Luke Willson33250
C.J. Prosise36220
Paul Richardson25191
Amara Darboh11160
Chris Carson1270
Jimmy Graham1210
Tanner McEvoy0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.48
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.22