Closing spread
KC -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.082EPA / play+0.085
- 44.2%Success rate44.9%
- +0.170EPA / dropback+0.191
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.082
- 9.8%Explosive rate10.3%
- +4.58CPOE+0.86
- 39.2%Third-down rate40.7%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.21Points / drive1.87
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. LAC are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 16/21 | 155 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 17 | 172 | 10.1 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 8 | 77 | 1 |
| Albert Wilson | 3 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| Charcandrick West | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 20/40 | 237 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 17 | 79 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Branden Oliver | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Benjamin | 5 | 8 | 105 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Branden Oliver | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 2 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
6.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.41
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.15