2017 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

24·10

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

StubHub Center · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

KC -3

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapChargers
  • +0.082EPA / play+0.085
  • 44.2%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.170EPA / dropback+0.191
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.082
  • 9.8%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +4.58CPOE+0.86
  • 39.2%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
  • 2.21Points / drive1.87
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 32–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. LAC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6LAC @ KC6–22KC
2025 · W15LAC @ KC16–13CHARGERS
2025 · W1KC @ LAC21–27CHARGERS
2024 · W14LAC @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W4KC @ LAC17–10KC
2023 · W18KC @ LAC13–12KC
2023 · W7LAC @ KC17–31KC
2022 · W11KC @ LAC30–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–LAC
LACQ1 15:00310Turnover0–0
KCQ1 13:59443Touchdown7–0
LACQ1 12:03841Turnover7–0
KCQ1 7:44434Touchdown14–0
LACQ1 5:33977Touchdown14–7
KCQ1 0:0542Punt14–7
LACQ2 12:09420Turnover14–7
KCQ2 10:39827Field goal17–7
LACQ2 4:301456Field goal17–10
KCQ3 15:00627Punt17–10
LACQ3 11:09849Punt17–10
KCQ3 7:08412Punt17–10
LACQ3 5:3339Punt17–10
KCQ3 3:50725Turnover on downs17–10
LACQ4 14:5630Punt17–10
KCQ4 13:24431Punt17–10
LACQ4 11:28513Punt17–10
KCQ4 9:52930Punt17–10
LACQ4 5:107-5Punt17–10
KCQ4 3:05480Touchdown24–10
LACQ4 1:49960End of half24–10

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith16/2115520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt1717210.11
Tyreek Hill3134.30
Alex Smith294.50
Charcandrick West2-1-0.50
Albert Wilson1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill58771
Albert Wilson34181
Charcandrick West22140
De'Anthony Thomas11140
Kareem Hunt11110
Demarcus Robinson2290
Travis Kelce1110
Chris Conley0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers20/4023703

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon17794.61
Branden Oliver8162.00
Travis Benjamin199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Benjamin581050
Keenan Allen59610
Antonio Gates25300
Branden Oliver46180
Tyrell Williams27150
Austin Ekeler1160
Dontrelle Inman1120
Melvin Gordon0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

6.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.41
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.15