2017 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

41·39

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brian Hoyer

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

LA -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

SF perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge map49ers
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.041
  • 43.3%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.131EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.110
  • 11.4%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -1.32CPOE-3.27
  • 41.3%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 56.1%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
  • 2.27Points / drive1.75
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999

Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1SF @ LA27–7SF
2025 · W10LA @ SF42–26RAMS
2025 · W5SF @ LA26–23SF
2024 · W15LA @ SF12–6RAMS
2024 · W3SF @ LA24–27RAMS
2023 · W18LA @ SF21–20RAMS
2023 · W2SF @ LA30–23SF
2022 · W8SF @ LA31–14SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–SF
SFQ1 15:0010Turnover6–0
LAQ1 14:5213Touchdown7–0
SFQ1 14:481476Touchdown7–7
LAQ1 8:17970Touchdown14–7
SFQ1 4:32542Turnover14–7
LAQ1 3:05638Field goal17–7
SFQ2 14:55727Punt17–7
SFQ2 11:3549Field goal17–10
LAQ2 9:373-2Punt17–10
SFQ2 8:30747Field goal17–13
LAQ2 3:461073Touchdown24–13
SFQ2 0:4930End of half24–13
LAQ3 15:001071Field goal27–13
SFQ3 9:171060Touchdown27–20
LAQ3 5:401265Touchdown34–20
SFQ3 0:17675Touchdown34–26
LAQ4 12:50780Touchdown41–26
SFQ4 8:4340Punt41–26
LAQ4 8:1131Punt41–26
SFQ4 6:35464Touchdown41–33
LAQ4 5:0800Touchdown41–33
SFQ4 5:01829Touchdown41–39
LAQ4 2:1300Turnover on downs41–39
SFQ4 2:105-8Turnover on downs41–39
LAQ4 1:44320End of half41–39

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff22/2829230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley281134.02
Tavon Austin3144.70
Jared Goff1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods671080
Sammy Watkins671062
Todd Gurley57361
Derek Carrier11170
Cooper Kupp22170
Tyler Higbee1340
Pharoh Cooper1140

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer23/3733221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde25843.42
Raheem Mostert4112.80
Brian Hoyer199.01
Matt Breida393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon7101420
Marquise Goodwin25620
Trent Taylor34321
Aldrick Robinson24230
Matt Breida34200
Carlos Hyde34100
George Kittle1380
Garrett Celek1211

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

6.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.48
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.96