Closing spread
LA -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.041
- 43.3%Success rate41.2%
- +0.131EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.110
- 11.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- -1.32CPOE-3.27
- 41.3%Third-down rate39.5%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
- 2.27Points / drive1.75
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 22/28 | 292 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 28 | 113 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Tavon Austin | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 6 | 7 | 108 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 6 | 7 | 106 | 2 |
| Todd Gurley | 5 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| Derek Carrier | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 23/37 | 332 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 25 | 84 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Raheem Mostert | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 7 | 10 | 142 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
6.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.26
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.48
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.96