Closing spread
MIA -5.5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play-0.073
- 39.2%Success rate38.5%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.000
- -0.198EPA / rush-0.181
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.7%
- -0.06CPOE+0.98
- 31.0%Third-down rate36.0%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.31Points / drive1.51
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 26/44 | 220 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 11 | 16 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 8 | 10 | 76 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 4 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 6 | 11 | 48 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Leonte Carroo | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 18/23 | 249 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 15 | 37 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Elijah McGuire | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 6 | 95 | 1 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 5 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| ArDarius Stewart | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Neal Sterling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.49