2017 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Cutler

6·20

Jets

New York

QB Josh McCown

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 88°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIA -5.5

Total

43

Model margin

+1.5est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJets
  • -0.125EPA / play-0.073
  • 39.2%Success rate38.5%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback-0.000
  • -0.198EPA / rush-0.181
  • 7.0%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -0.06CPOE+0.98
  • 31.0%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.51
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:003-6Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:48419Punt0–0
NYJQ1 10:56959Missed field goal0–0
MIAQ1 5:0131Punt0–0
NYJQ1 3:01413Punt0–0
MIAQ1 0:57720Punt0–0
NYJQ2 12:591171Field goal0–3
MIAQ2 7:173-2Punt0–3
NYJQ2 6:1734Punt0–3
MIAQ2 4:063-8Punt0–3
NYJQ2 2:22381Touchdown0–10
MIAQ2 1:42519Punt0–10
NYJQ2 0:1900End of half0–10
MIAQ3 15:003-5Punt0–10
NYJQ3 13:54749Touchdown0–17
MIAQ3 9:4843Turnover0–17
NYJQ3 8:331240Field goal0–20
MIAQ3 1:351154Turnover on downs0–20
NYJQ4 13:26515Punt0–20
MIAQ4 10:32637Turnover on downs0–20
NYJQ4 7:3526Turnover0–20
MIAQ4 6:40711Turnover0–20
NYJQ4 4:2735Punt0–20
MIAQ4 2:15876Touchdown6–20

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler26/4422011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi11161.50
Jay Cutler199.00
Damien Williams252.50
Kenyan Drake100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker810761
Kenny Stills410510
Jarvis Landry611480
Julius Thomas35160
Jakeem Grant11120
Jay Ajayi2390
Damien Williams1160
Kenyan Drake1220
Leonte Carroo0200

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown18/2324910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell15372.51
Elijah McGuire7344.90
Matt Forte8253.10
Josh McCown471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen36951
Jeremy Kerley55420
Jermaine Kearse33420
Austin Seferian-Jenkins56310
ArDarius Stewart11240
Neal Sterling0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.1%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.49