Closing spread
PHI -5
Total
42
Model margin
+4.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.106EPA / play+0.051
- 41.1%Success rate43.3%
- -0.099EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.093
- 6.2%Explosive rate8.9%
- -3.91CPOE+0.38
- 32.5%Third-down rate42.0%
- 51.3%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.19Points / drive2.12
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 35/47 | 366 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orleans Darkwa | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 7 | 10 | 133 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 9 | 13 | 79 | 2 |
| Brandon Marshall | 8 | 11 | 66 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Roger Lewis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 21/31 | 176 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wendell Smallwood | 12 | 71 | 5.9 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 12 | 67 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 4 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 8 | 10 | 55 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.03
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.85