2017 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

24·27

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PHI -5

Total

42

Model margin

+4.8est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapEagles
  • -0.106EPA / play+0.051
  • 41.1%Success rate43.3%
  • -0.099EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.093
  • 6.2%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -3.91CPOE+0.38
  • 32.5%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 51.3%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 1.19Points / drive2.12
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00312Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:19824Punt0–0
PHIQ1 9:1936Punt0–0
NYGQ1 7:17625Punt0–0
PHIQ1 4:031890Touchdown0–7
NYGQ2 9:29424Turnover0–7
PHIQ2 7:561142Turnover on downs0–7
NYGQ2 2:291149Turnover on downs0–7
PHIQ2 0:1900End of half0–7
NYGQ3 15:0032Punt0–7
PHIQ3 14:10741Missed field goal0–7
NYGQ3 9:2124Turnover0–7
PHIQ3 8:58818Touchdown0–14
NYGQ3 5:151258Turnover on downs0–14
PHIQ3 1:1736Punt0–14
NYGQ4 14:49555Touchdown7–14
PHIQ4 12:3914Turnover7–14
NYGQ4 12:13433Touchdown14–14
PHIQ4 10:53615Punt14–14
NYGQ4 7:52278Touchdown21–14
PHIQ4 7:12539Touchdown21–21
NYGQ4 5:40939Field goal24–21
PHIQ4 3:08862Field goal24–24
NYGQ4 0:51424Punt24–24
PHIQ4 0:13219Field goal24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning35/4736632

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Orleans Darkwa7223.10
Paul Perkins9222.40
Shane Vereen155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sterling Shepard7101331
Odell Beckham Jr.913792
Brandon Marshall811660
Evan Engram57450
Shane Vereen22180
Orleans Darkwa11110
Paul Perkins2280
Roger Lewis1160

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz21/3117610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wendell Smallwood12715.90
LeGarrette Blount12675.61
Carson Wentz6223.70
Corey Clement6223.71
Darren Sproles3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery48560
Zach Ertz810551
Torrey Smith45290
Nelson Agholor23200
Wendell Smallwood1290
Trey Burton2370

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.0%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.85