2017 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mike Glennon

14·35

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

GB -7.5

Total

44

Model margin

+6.0est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPackers
  • -0.112EPA / play-0.023
  • 38.5%Success rate45.2%
  • -0.099EPA / dropback-0.019
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.032
  • 7.7%Explosive rate6.2%
  • -3.10CPOE-1.27
  • 34.8%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.77
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–GB
GBQ1 15:001075Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 9:491-13Turnover0–7
GBQ1 9:4133Touchdown0–14
CHIQ1 8:56630Turnover0–14
GBQ1 5:4534Punt0–14
CHIQ1 4:2436Punt0–14
GBQ1 2:493-4Punt0–14
CHIQ1 0:48924Punt0–14
GBQ2 11:12618Punt0–14
CHIQ2 6:54316Turnover0–14
GBQ2 5:28260Touchdown0–21
CHIQ2 4:4838Punt0–21
GBQ2 2:3234Punt0–21
CHIQ2 1:41772Touchdown7–21
GBQ2 0:0800End of half7–21
CHIQ3 15:00843Missed field goal7–21
GBQ3 11:521553Touchdown7–28
CHIQ3 4:09424Turnover7–28
GBQ3 2:45642Touchdown7–35
CHIQ4 14:541670Touchdown14–35
GBQ4 6:0136Punt14–35
CHIQ4 3:41828End of half14–35

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon21/3321812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard18532.91
Benny Cunningham5265.20
Tarik Cohen6244.00
Mike Glennon100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright44511
Zach Miller22450
Deonte Thompson59440
Josh Bellamy36360
Tarik Cohen44240
Jordan Howard24100
Dion Sims1180
Markus Wheaton0300

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers18/2617940
Brett Hundley1/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones13493.81
Ty Montgomery5285.60
Jamaal Williams4112.80
Aaron Rodgers1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson47752
Randall Cobb44441
Martellus Bennett67390
Davante Adams25131
Jamaal Williams1120
Lance Kendricks1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.8%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.88
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.96