Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
44
Model margin
+6.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play-0.023
- 38.5%Success rate45.2%
- -0.099EPA / dropback-0.019
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.032
- 7.7%Explosive rate6.2%
- -3.10CPOE-1.27
- 34.8%Third-down rate39.5%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.22Points / drive1.77
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 21/33 | 218 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Benny Cunningham | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 4 | 4 | 51 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 5 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 18/26 | 179 | 4 | 0 |
| Brett Hundley | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 4 | 7 | 75 | 2 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 6 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 2 | 5 | 13 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.66
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+4.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.96