2017 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

31·7

Browns

Cleveland

QB DeShone Kizer

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.088EPA / play-0.146
  • 39.2%Success rate38.4%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback-0.169
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.096
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -1.89CPOE-5.42
  • 34.7%Third-down rate33.6%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.07
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:022-8Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 12:2130Missed field goal0–0
CINQ1 11:05524Punt0–0
CLEQ1 8:43630Punt0–0
CINQ1 5:17935Touchdown7–0
CLEQ2 14:561149Turnover7–0
CINQ2 10:011384Touchdown14–0
CLEQ2 2:3332Punt14–0
CINQ2 1:40383Touchdown21–0
CLEQ2 0:47418End of half21–0
CINQ3 15:00952Field goal24–0
CLEQ3 11:2832Punt24–0
CINQ3 9:571174Touchdown31–0
CLEQ3 3:37517Punt31–0
CINQ3 1:0931Punt31–0
CLEQ4 14:111025Turnover on downs31–0
CINQ4 12:053-3Punt31–0
CLEQ4 9:5533Punt31–0
CINQ4 8:533-4Punt31–0
CLEQ4 6:301462Touchdown31–7
CINQ4 1:54312End of half31–7

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton25/3028640

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andy Dalton4297.30
Joe Mixon17291.70
Jeremy Hill6162.70
Giovani Bernard3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Kroft67682
Giovani Bernard34671
A.J. Green57631
Joe Mixon44190
Brandon LaFell23170
Ryan Hewitt11160
Tyler Boyd22150
C.J. Uzomah11110
Jeremy Hill11100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
DeShone Kizer16/3411801
Kevin Hogan5/86500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell7202.90
Duke Johnson4133.31
DeShone Kizer5102.00
Matt Dayes122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ricardo Louis59640
Kenny Britt38520
Duke Johnson910470
David Njoku22110
Isaiah Crowell1270
Seth DeValve1420
Kasen Williams0200
Rashard Higgins0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.9%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.05