Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play-0.146
- 39.2%Success rate38.4%
- -0.050EPA / dropback-0.169
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.096
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.9%
- -1.89CPOE-5.42
- 34.7%Third-down rate33.6%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
- 1.49Points / drive1.07
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 25/30 | 286 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 17 | 29 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Kroft | 6 | 7 | 68 | 2 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 4 | 67 | 1 |
| A.J. Green | 5 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShone Kizer | 16/34 | 118 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin Hogan | 5/8 | 65 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 1 |
| DeShone Kizer | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Dayes | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Louis | 5 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 3 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 9 | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Kasen Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.79
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.05