Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
+4.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play+0.026
- 40.8%Success rate42.5%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.278EPA / rush-0.142
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.8%
- +0.41CPOE+3.66
- 38.4%Third-down rate44.3%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.78Points / drive2.02
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 19/31 | 209 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 20 | 94 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Michael Roberts | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 16/30 | 219 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 13 | 66 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 7 | 98 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| David Morgan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.47
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.21