2017 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

14·7

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Case Keenum

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

Total

43

Model margin

+4.2est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapVikings
  • -0.046EPA / play+0.026
  • 40.8%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.155
  • -0.278EPA / rush-0.142
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +0.41CPOE+3.66
  • 38.4%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 64.3%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.78Points / drive2.02
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–18 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET
2022 · W3DET @ MIN24–28MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–MIN
DETQ1 15:00614Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:24534Punt0–0
DETQ1 8:47432Punt0–0
MINQ1 7:00735Punt0–0
DETQ1 3:491482Field goal3–0
MINQ2 10:4739Punt3–0
DETQ2 9:13726Punt3–0
MINQ2 5:401186Touchdown3–7
DETQ2 1:07534Missed field goal3–7
MINQ3 15:0030Turnover3–7
DETQ3 14:18729Field goal6–7
MINQ3 10:41110Turnover6–7
DETQ3 10:25529Touchdown14–7
MINQ3 8:0032Punt14–7
DETQ3 7:0575Punt14–7
MINQ3 2:49539Missed field goal14–7
DETQ3 0:4557Punt14–7
MINQ4 12:0738Punt14–7
DETQ4 10:383-4Punt14–7
MINQ4 8:161450Turnover on downs14–7
DETQ4 2:1230Punt14–7
MINQ4 1:51111Turnover14–7
DETQ4 1:4300End of half14–7

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford19/3120900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ameer Abdullah20944.71
Theo Riddick441.00
Golden Tate122.00
Zach Zenner300.00
Matthew Stafford3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones25420
Darren Fells45400
T.J. Jones35330
Golden Tate35290
Eric Ebron24270
Ameer Abdullah34150
Michael Roberts11150
Theo Riddick1280

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum16/3021900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook13665.11
Latavius Murray7213.00
Jerick McKinnon200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs57980
Adam Thielen58590
Kyle Rudolph24340
Blake Bell11120
Latavius Murray2280
Dalvin Cook1380
Jerick McKinnon0200
David Morgan0100
Laquon Treadwell0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.3%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.21