2022 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

24·28

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -6.5

Total

52

Model margin

+1.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapVikings
  • +0.073EPA / play+0.004
  • 45.7%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.173EPA / dropback+0.070
  • -0.070EPA / rush-0.130
  • 9.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -1.27CPOE+1.66
  • 41.5%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 64.6%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
  • 2.36Points / drive2.04
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. MIN are 25-26-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–MIN
DETQ1 15:00650Missed field goal0–0
MINQ1 11:03624Missed field goal0–0
DETQ1 9:20654Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 6:44516Punt7–0
DETQ1 4:061270Touchdown14–0
MINQ2 13:381372Touchdown14–7
DETQ2 8:50835Turnover on downs14–7
MINQ2 4:58949Touchdown14–14
DETQ2 1:12417Punt14–14
MINQ2 0:31427End of half14–14
MINQ3 15:0032Punt14–14
DETQ3 13:58946Field goal17–14
MINQ3 8:36839Missed field goal17–14
DETQ3 4:46554Touchdown24–14
MINQ3 2:08318Turnover24–14
DETQ3 0:4833Punt24–14
MINQ4 14:5037Punt24–14
DETQ4 12:53513Punt24–14
MINQ4 10:39847Touchdown24–21
DETQ4 7:501043Turnover on downs24–21
MINQ4 3:30517Turnover on downs24–21
DETQ4 2:3256Missed field goal24–21
MINQ4 1:10356Touchdown24–28
DETQ4 0:45425Turnover24–28
MINQ4 0:0900End of half24–28

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff25/4127711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams20874.32
D'Andre Swift7314.40
Craig Reynolds6132.20
Jared Goff284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Reynolds610960
Amon-Ra St. Brown69730
DJ Chark36460
Jamaal Williams22200
T.J. Hockenson34181
D'Andre Swift34150
Craig Reynolds1150
Kalif Raymond1140

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins24/4126020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook17965.61
Alexander Mattison7284.01
Kirk Cousins1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
K.J. Osborn58731
Adam Thielen68611
Irv Smith26320
Ben Ellefson22240
Johnny Mundt22230
Alexander Mattison11160
Justin Jefferson36140
Jalen Reagor1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

4.61%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.45