Closing spread
MIN -6.5
Total
52
Model margin
+1.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.073EPA / play+0.004
- 45.7%Success rate45.8%
- +0.173EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.130
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- -1.27CPOE+1.66
- 41.5%Third-down rate40.7%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 2.36Points / drive2.04
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 25/41 | 277 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 20 | 87 | 4.3 | 2 |
| D'Andre Swift | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reynolds | 6 | 10 | 96 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 3 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 3 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 24/41 | 260 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 17 | 96 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.J. Osborn | 5 | 8 | 73 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 6 | 8 | 61 | 1 |
| Irv Smith | 2 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Ben Ellefson | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.45