2017 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

26·9

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

42

Model margin

+1.4est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRavens
  • +0.076EPA / play-0.052
  • 46.0%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback-0.054
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.050
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +3.69CPOE-1.33
  • 43.8%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 57.6%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
  • 2.22Points / drive1.79
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BAL
BALQ1 15:00736Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:451699Field goal3–0
BALQ1 0:2237Punt3–0
PITQ2 14:03416Punt3–0
BALQ2 12:123-2Punt3–0
PITQ2 10:24825Field goal6–0
BALQ2 7:2536Turnover6–0
PITQ2 5:48633Touchdown13–0
BALQ2 3:2435Punt13–0
PITQ2 2:13980Touchdown19–0
BALQ2 0:38317Missed field goal19–0
PITQ3 15:0034Turnover19–0
BALQ3 13:283-6Field goal19–3
PITQ3 12:321053Missed field goal19–3
BALQ3 7:05366Touchdown19–9
PITQ3 6:02510Punt19–9
BALQ3 3:20816Punt19–9
PITQ4 14:1736Punt19–9
BALQ4 12:37523Turnover19–9
PITQ4 11:1337Punt19–9
BALQ4 9:331149Turnover19–9
PITQ4 5:37749Touchdown26–9
BALQ4 2:261471Turnover on downs26–9
PITQ4 0:0500End of half26–9

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger18/3021611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell351444.12
James Conner4266.50
Darrius Heyward-Bey133.00
Terrell Watson111.00
Ben Roethlisberger1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Martavis Bryant35480
JuJu Smith-Schuster34471
Le'Veon Bell46420
Jesse James33400
Antonio Brown49340
Justin Hunter1250
Vance McDonald0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco31/4923512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins9829.10
Javorius Allen273.50
Terrance West4-7-1.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace610551
Benjamin Watson56430
Javorius Allen66370
Nick Boyle55360
Michael Campanaro46250
Jeremy Maclin36210
Chris Matthews12120
Breshad Perriman1460
Alex Collins0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.36