Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
42
Model margin
+1.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.052
- 46.0%Success rate42.5%
- +0.177EPA / dropback-0.054
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.050
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.2%
- +3.69CPOE-1.33
- 43.8%Third-down rate35.3%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
- 2.22Points / drive1.79
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 18/30 | 216 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 35 | 144 | 4.1 | 2 |
| James Conner | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Terrell Watson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martavis Bryant | 3 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 4 | 9 | 34 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 31/49 | 235 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 9 | 82 | 9.1 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 4 | -7 | -1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 6 | 10 | 55 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 6 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 5 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 4 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Chris Matthews | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.36