Closing spread
ARI -6.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play-0.129
- 41.2%Success rate38.8%
- -0.001EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.207
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.2%
- -3.27CPOE-4.25
- 39.5%Third-down rate35.7%
- 45.0%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.75Points / drive1.20
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 24/49 | 234 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 16 | 68 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldrick Robinson | 3 | 12 | 52 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 5 | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 4 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 33/51 | 357 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 13 | 32 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaron Brown | 8 | 12 | 105 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 9 | 14 | 86 | 0 |
| John Brown | 3 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 7 | 32 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.34
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.48
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+0.28