2017 · Week 4 · Division

Final / OT

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brian Hoyer

15·18

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -6.5

Total

43

Model margin

+0.3est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCardinals
  • -0.041EPA / play-0.129
  • 41.2%Success rate38.8%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.207
  • 9.2%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -3.27CPOE-4.25
  • 39.5%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 45.0%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.20
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ARI
ARIQ1 15:001371Turnover0–0
SFQ1 8:1632Punt0–0
ARIQ1 7:1734Punt0–0
SFQ1 5:50945Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 2:05983Field goal3–3
SFQ2 13:071164Field goal6–3
ARIQ2 7:161236Punt6–3
SFQ2 2:3231Turnover6–3
ARIQ2 1:5435Field goal6–6
SFQ2 1:24414Punt6–6
ARIQ2 0:36316End of half6–6
SFQ3 15:00956Field goal9–6
ARIQ3 10:34810Field goal9–9
SFQ3 6:501055Field goal12–9
ARIQ3 2:22516Punt12–9
SFQ4 14:493-1Punt12–9
ARIQ4 13:491050Field goal12–12
SFQ4 7:4133Punt12–12
ARIQ4 5:4634Punt12–12
SFQ4 4:1441Punt12–12
ARIQ4 3:443-16Punt12–12
SFQ4 2:2530Punt12–12
ARIQ4 1:4533Punt12–12
SFQ4 0:5033Punt12–12
ARIQ4 0:13110End of half12–12
SFOT1962Field goal15–12
ARIOT977Touchdown15–18

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer24/4923401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde16684.30
Matt Breida9161.80
Brian Hoyer133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Aldrick Robinson312520
Trent Taylor510470
Pierre Garcon48360
George Kittle23350
Carlos Hyde56270
Marquise Goodwin12180
Matt Breida1340
Logan Paulsen0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer33/5135711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson13322.50
Andre Ellington5183.60
Carson Palmer210.50
Kerwynn Williams1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaron Brown8121050
Andre Ellington914860
John Brown37470
J.J. Nelson34340
Larry Fitzgerald47321
Chris Johnson33310
Jermaine Gresham23120
Kerwynn Williams11100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

4.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.8%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.48
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+0.28