2015 · Week 14

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Matt Cassel

7·28

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

GB -6

Total

43

Model margin

+4.7est.

GB perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapPackers
  • -0.073EPA / play+0.002
  • 43.9%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback+0.075
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.134
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -0.85CPOE-0.77
  • 34.0%Third-down rate33.6%
  • 42.4%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.72
  • 3.1%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–4–1 since 1999

Meetings average 54.6 points. GB are 11-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6DAL @ GB13–23GB
2025 · W4GB @ DAL40–40Tie
2023 · playoffsGB @ DAL48–32GB
2022 · W10DAL @ GB28–31GB
2019 · W5GB @ DAL34–24GB
2017 · W5GB @ DAL35–31GB
2016 · playoffsGB @ DAL34–31GB
2016 · W6DAL @ GB30–16DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–GB
GBQ1 15:00518Punt0–0
DALQ1 12:32768Turnover0–0
GBQ1 9:191899Turnover on downs0–0
DALQ1 1:0039Punt0–0
GBQ2 14:031053Touchdown0–7
DALQ2 9:49618Punt0–7
GBQ2 6:541276Touchdown0–14
DALQ2 2:4039Punt0–14
GBQ2 1:4855Punt0–14
DALQ2 0:47417End of half0–14
DALQ3 15:0039Punt0–14
GBQ3 13:20627Punt0–14
DALQ3 10:32480Touchdown7–14
GBQ3 8:25621Punt7–14
DALQ3 4:2639Punt7–14
GBQ3 2:5939Punt7–14
DALQ3 1:2858Punt7–14
GBQ4 14:143-2Punt7–14
DALQ4 13:15312Punt7–14
GBQ4 11:181394Touchdown7–21
DALQ4 4:44618Turnover on downs7–21
GBQ4 3:11438Touchdown7–28
DALQ4 2:46513Turnover on downs7–28
GBQ4 1:1600End of half7–28

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel13/2911401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren McFadden911112.30
Robert Turbin7517.31
Matt Cassel362.00
Lucky Whitehead133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten59400
Terrance Williams35380
Cole Beasley34250
Dez Bryant1690
Lucky Whitehead1120
Darren McFadden0200
Devin Street0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers22/3521820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy241245.21
James Starks11716.51
Aaron Rodgers3279.00
Randall Cobb393.00
Scott Tolzien2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb812810
James Jones47490
James Starks44321
Eddie Lacy11240
Davante Adams23120
Justin Perillo1130
Richard Rodgers1231
Jared Abbrederis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.5%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+4.67