Closing spread
GB -6
Total
43
Model margin
+4.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.002
- 43.9%Success rate42.3%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.075
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.134
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.1%
- -0.85CPOE-0.77
- 34.0%Third-down rate33.6%
- 42.4%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 1.31Points / drive1.72
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4–1 since 1999
Meetings average 55.8 points. GB are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 13/29 | 114 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren McFadden | 9 | 111 | 12.3 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 7 | 51 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Matt Cassel | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 5 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Darren McFadden | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Street | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/35 | 218 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 24 | 124 | 5.2 | 1 |
| James Starks | 11 | 71 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Scott Tolzien | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 8 | 12 | 81 | 0 |
| James Jones | 4 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| James Starks | 4 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Justin Perillo | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Jared Abbrederis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+4.67