Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
-1.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.112
- 42.5%Success rate38.5%
- +0.155EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.7%
- +3.66CPOE-3.10
- 44.3%Third-down rate34.8%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 2.02Points / drive1.22
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 17/21 | 140 | 1 | 0 |
| Sam Bradford | 5/11 | 36 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 16 | 95 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 6 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 6 | 9 | 45 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 12/25 | 128 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 19 | 76 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 2 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 7 | 39 | 1 |
| Tre McBride | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.0%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.91
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.42
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-1.51