2017 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Bradford

20·17

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

-1.5est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBears
  • +0.026EPA / play-0.112
  • 42.5%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback-0.099
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.130
  • 8.8%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +3.66CPOE-3.10
  • 44.3%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.22
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00945Punt0–0
MINQ1 10:1338Punt0–0
CHIQ1 9:1338Punt0–0
MINQ1 7:0134Punt0–0
CHIQ1 5:23521Punt0–0
MINQ1 2:273-10Safety0–2
CHIQ1 1:31835Punt0–2
MINQ2 12:52611Punt0–2
CHIQ2 9:57615Punt0–2
MINQ2 7:03816Punt0–2
CHIQ2 2:341-7Turnover0–2
MINQ2 2:2835Field goal3–2
CHIQ2 1:0234Punt3–2
MINQ2 0:25421End of half3–2
MINQ3 15:001375Touchdown10–2
CHIQ3 8:16775Touchdown10–9
MINQ3 5:23592Touchdown17–9
CHIQ3 3:311365Touchdown17–17
MINQ4 12:24727Punt17–17
CHIQ4 9:2147Punt17–17
MINQ4 7:20936Punt17–17
CHIQ4 2:3210Turnover17–17
MINQ4 2:20615Field goal20–17
CHIQ4 0:1216End of half20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum17/2114010
Sam Bradford5/113600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon16955.91
Latavius Murray12312.60
Case Keenum12222.00
Adam Thielen11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerick McKinnon66510
Kyle Rudolph69451
Adam Thielen58340
Michael Floyd11190
Latavius Murray22120
Stefon Diggs1440

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky12/2512811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard19764.00
Mitchell Trubisky3227.30
Tarik Cohen6132.20
Benny Cunningham144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright45460
Benny Cunningham24431
Zach Miller37391
Tre McBride11180
Dion Sims14170
Markus Wheaton1490
Tarik Cohen11-60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.0%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.42
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-1.51