2017 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

16·10

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

LA -2

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

LA perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapRams
  • -0.023EPA / play+0.054
  • 41.3%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback+0.131
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.050
  • 9.4%Explosive rate11.4%
  • +4.52CPOE-1.32
  • 37.4%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 63.6%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
  • 1.68Points / drive2.27
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 28–24 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. LA are 28-24 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ SEA27–31SEA
2025 · W16LA @ SEA37–38SEA
2025 · W11SEA @ LA19–21RAMS
2024 · W18SEA @ LA30–25SEA
2024 · W9LA @ SEA26–20RAMS
2023 · W11SEA @ LA16–17RAMS
2023 · W1LA @ SEA30–13RAMS
2022 · W18LA @ SEA16–19SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–LA
SEAQ1 15:0064Punt0–0
LAQ1 12:04761Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 9:20924Punt0–0
LAQ1 5:0439Punt0–0
SEAQ1 3:2110Turnover0–0
LAQ1 3:101079Touchdown0–7
SEAQ2 14:1333Punt0–7
SEAQ2 12:26415Turnover0–7
LAQ2 10:2532Field goal0–10
SEAQ2 9:291575Touchdown7–10
LAQ2 1:5531Punt7–10
SEAQ2 1:28751Field goal10–10
LAQ3 15:001245Missed field goal10–10
SEAQ3 9:54843Field goal13–10
LAQ3 5:411152Turnover13–10
SEAQ3 0:4848Punt13–10
LAQ4 13:2835Punt13–10
SEAQ4 11:5133Punt13–10
LAQ4 10:481138Turnover13–10
SEAQ4 6:0238Punt13–10
LAQ4 4:17428Turnover13–10
SEAQ4 2:4638Field goal16–10
LAQ4 1:09655Turnover on downs16–10
SEAQ4 0:0500End of half16–10

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson24/3719811
Tanner McEvoy0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Rawls8202.50
Eddie Lacy9192.10
Russell Wilson5163.20
Tyler Lockett177.00
J.D. McKissic200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham68371
Doug Baldwin48370
J.D. McKissic35360
Paul Richardson35350
Tyler Lockett34260
Thomas Rawls23150
Eddie Lacy1190
Nick Vannett2230
Luke Willson0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff22/4728802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley14433.10
Tavon Austin6274.51
Jared Goff12222.00
Robert Woods188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Higbee48980
Robert Woods58660
Cooper Kupp38440
Malcolm Brown22290
Pharoh Cooper24220
Tavon Austin35140
Gerald Everett1380
Todd Gurley2470
Sammy Watkins0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +24.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.30
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.04