Closing spread
LA -2
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
LA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.054
- 41.3%Success rate43.3%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.131
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.050
- 9.4%Explosive rate11.4%
- +4.52CPOE-1.32
- 37.4%Third-down rate41.3%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
- 1.68Points / drive2.27
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. LA are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 24/37 | 198 | 1 | 1 |
| Tanner McEvoy | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Rawls | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 8 | 37 | 1 |
| Doug Baldwin | 4 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 22/47 | 288 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Higbee | 4 | 8 | 98 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 5 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 3 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.30
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.04