2011 · Week 13

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

17·31

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -9.5

Total

55

Model margin

+5.3est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapSaints
  • +0.036EPA / play+0.198
  • 44.2%Success rate51.4%
  • +0.101EPA / dropback+0.305
  • -0.104EPA / rush+0.014
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +1.23CPOE+7.27
  • 35.2%Third-down rate58.6%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 1.98Points / drive2.96
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 8–6 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. NO are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1NO @ DET30–31DET
2023 · W13DET @ NO33–28DET
2020 · W4NO @ DET35–29NO
2017 · W6DET @ NO38–52NO
2016 · W13DET @ NO28–13DET
2015 · W15DET @ NO35–27DET
2014 · W7NO @ DET23–24DET
2011 · playoffsDET @ NO28–45NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–NO
NOQ1 15:00421Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:2047Punt0–0
NOQ1 11:091236Field goal0–3
DETQ1 5:45929Punt0–3
NOQ1 0:5217164Touchdown0–16
DETQ2 11:50114Punt0–16
DETQ2 11:44619Punt0–16
NOQ2 8:51275Touchdown0–23
DETQ2 8:031080Touchdown7–23
NOQ2 2:28880Touchdown7–30
DETQ2 0:22249Missed field goal7–30
DETQ3 15:0000Field goal7–30
DETQ2 11:4410Field goal7–30
DETQ3 15:00122Field goal7–30
DETQ2 11:39211Field goal7–30
DETQ3 14:37117Field goal7–30
DETQ2 10:2428Field goal7–30
DETQ3 14:0115Field goal7–30
DETQ2 9:1010Field goal7–30
DETQ3 13:16110Field goal7–30
DETQ3 12:3410Field goal7–30
DETQ2 6:42322Field goal7–30
DETQ3 12:1019Field goal7–30
DETQ2 3:59216Field goal13–30
DETQ3 11:3715Field goal13–30
DETQ3 11:0929Field goal13–30
DETQ3 9:5615Field goal16–30
DETQ3 9:1500Field goal16–30
NOQ3 9:111-1Punt16–30
NOQ3 8:32116Punt16–30
NOQ3 7:53423Punt16–30
DETQ3 6:371192Touchdown23–30
NOQ3 0:4338Punt23–30
DETQ4 13:59445Missed field goal23–30
NOQ4 12:38755Touchdown23–37
DETQ4 9:44845Punt23–37
NOQ4 6:35410Punt23–37
DETQ4 4:53913Turnover23–37
NOQ4 2:55623Turnover on downs23–37
DETQ4 1:0145End of half23–37

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford36/5146111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Smith8425.32
Maurice Morris14312.20
Keiland Williams2147.00
Titus Young11111.00
Stefan Logan100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Burleson6101070
Calvin Johnson710740
Kevin Smith89690
Titus Young22600
Maurice Morris68581
Tony Scheffler24410
Rashied Davis11220
Brandon Pettigrew25130
Will Heller11100
Keiland Williams1170

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees29/3940130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram18724.02
Darren Sproles5295.80
Robert Meachem2168.00
Pierre Thomas2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Meachem471571
Jimmy Graham810890
Marques Colston810750
Darren Sproles55461
Lance Moore24231
Pierre Thomas22110
Mark Ingram0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.08
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+5.25