Closing spread
NO -9.5
Total
55
Model margin
+5.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play+0.198
- 44.2%Success rate51.4%
- +0.101EPA / dropback+0.305
- -0.104EPA / rush+0.014
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.8%
- +1.23CPOE+7.27
- 35.2%Third-down rate58.6%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.98Points / drive2.96
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 8–6 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. NO are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 36/51 | 461 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Maurice Morris | 14 | 31 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Burleson | 6 | 10 | 107 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 7 | 10 | 74 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 8 | 9 | 69 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 2 | 2 | 60 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 6 | 8 | 58 | 1 |
| Tony Scheffler | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Rashied Davis | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/39 | 401 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 18 | 72 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Meachem | 4 | 7 | 157 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 8 | 10 | 89 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 8 | 10 | 75 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.08
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+5.25