Closing spread
GB -3
Total
46
Model margin
+0.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.026
- 45.2%Success rate42.5%
- -0.019EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.142
- 6.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- -1.27CPOE+3.66
- 39.5%Third-down rate44.3%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.77Points / drive2.02
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Hundley | 18/33 | 157 | 1 | 3 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2/4 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brett Hundley | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 6 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 5 | 10 | 54 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 24/38 | 239 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 15 | 69 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 15 | 28 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 9 | 13 | 96 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 5 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 5 | 6 | 30 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Stacy Coley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.57
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-5.40
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.83