2017 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

10·23

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Case Keenum

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

46

Model margin

+0.8est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapVikings
  • -0.023EPA / play+0.026
  • 45.2%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.019EPA / dropback+0.155
  • -0.032EPA / rush-0.142
  • 6.2%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -1.27CPOE+3.66
  • 39.5%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.77Points / drive2.02
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–MIN
GBQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:38630Punt0–0
GBQ1 10:03622Punt0–0
MINQ1 6:111231Punt0–0
GBQ1 1:4238Turnover0–0
MINQ1 0:04227Touchdown0–7
GBQ2 14:533-1Punt0–7
MINQ2 12:47222Turnover0–7
GBQ2 12:04318Touchdown7–7
MINQ2 10:40942Touchdown7–14
GBQ2 7:224-4Punt7–14
MINQ2 5:39420Turnover7–14
GBQ2 4:02630Field goal10–14
MINQ2 1:511155Turnover on downs10–14
MINQ3 15:001157Field goal10–17
GBQ3 9:35621Punt10–17
MINQ3 5:131066Field goal10–20
GBQ4 14:57520Turnover10–20
MINQ4 12:1630Field goal10–23
GBQ4 10:4736Punt10–23
MINQ4 9:103-3Punt10–23
GBQ4 7:22915Turnover on downs10–23
MINQ4 5:3235Punt10–23
GBQ4 3:201584Turnover10–23
MINQ4 0:1500End of half10–23

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Hundley18/3315713
Aaron Rodgers2/41800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones13413.20
Ty Montgomery10282.80
Brett Hundley133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson610600
Davante Adams510541
Randall Cobb33280
Martellus Bennett24220
Geronimo Allison1270
Ty Montgomery1330
Aaron Jones1410

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum24/3823911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon15694.61
Latavius Murray15281.90
Case Keenum2157.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen913960
Laquon Treadwell33510
Kyle Rudolph59470
Jerick McKinnon56301
Latavius Murray11100
Michael Floyd1350
Stacy Coley0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.40
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.83