Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–21 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. OAK are 22-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 25/36 | 268 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 25 | 83 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 7 | 90 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 9 | 12 | 67 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.47
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.73
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.