Closing spread
LA -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
LA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Cardinals
- QuestionableAndre EllingtonRBQuadricep· DNP
- QuestionableKarlos DansbyLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableOlsen PierreDTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableRobert NkemdicheDTCalf· Limited
- QuestionableXavier WilliamsDTKnee· Limited
Rams
- DoubtfulCody DavisSThigh· DNP
- QuestionableMark BarronLBThumb· Limited
- LimitedAndrew WhitworthTNot Injury Related
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play+0.054
- 38.8%Success rate43.3%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.131
- -0.207EPA / rush-0.050
- 7.2%Explosive rate11.4%
- -4.25CPOE-1.32
- 35.7%Third-down rate41.3%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
- 1.20Points / drive2.27
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. LA are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 65 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:04 | 13 | 73 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 4:14 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 2:01 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 0:39 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q2 14:51 | 7 | 41 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| ARI | Q2 11:13 | 10 | 24 | Punt | 0–6 |
| LA | Q2 8:03 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 0–6 |
| ARI | Q2 5:48 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–12 |
| LA | Q2 5:35 | 1 | 18 | Touchdown | 0–13 |
| ARI | Q2 5:25 | 7 | 17 | Punt | 0–13 |
| LA | Q2 2:04 | 8 | 83 | Touchdown | 0–20 |
| ARI | Q2 0:41 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–20 |
| LA | Q2 0:33 | 3 | -7 | Field goal | 0–23 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 53 | Field goal | 0–26 |
| ARI | Q3 10:53 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–26 |
| LA | Q3 8:54 | 11 | 49 | Turnover | 0–26 |
| ARI | Q3 2:01 | 8 | 24 | Punt | 0–26 |
| LA | Q4 14:05 | 17 | 90 | Touchdown | 0–33 |
| ARI | Q4 3:46 | 5 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 0–33 |
| LA | Q4 2:31 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 0–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 10/18 | 122 | 0 | 1 |
| Drew Stanton | 5/14 | 66 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Nelson | 2 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 2 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Brittan Golden | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Troy Niklas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 22/37 | 235 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 22 | 106 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Malcolm Brown | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Sean Mannion | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 4 | 10 | 51 | 1 |
| Todd Gurley | 4 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.66