Closing spread
LA -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
LA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play+0.054
- 38.8%Success rate43.3%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.131
- -0.207EPA / rush-0.050
- 7.2%Explosive rate11.4%
- -4.25CPOE-1.32
- 35.7%Third-down rate41.3%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
- 1.20Points / drive2.27
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. LA are 25-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 10/18 | 122 | 0 | 1 |
| Drew Stanton | 5/14 | 66 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Nelson | 2 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 2 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Brittan Golden | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Troy Niklas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 22/37 | 235 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 22 | 106 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Malcolm Brown | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Sean Mannion | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 4 | 10 | 51 | 1 |
| Todd Gurley | 4 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.66